covid_summary.html

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  21 <h1 class="title">Covid death data summary</h1>
  22 <p class="author">Neil Smith</p>
  23 <p class="date">Created on 2020-08-19</p>
  24 </header>
  25 <blockquote>
  26 <p>Last UK data from 2020-08-19</p>
  27 </blockquote>
  28 <h2 id="headlines">Headlines</h2>
  29 <table>
  30 <thead>
  31 <tr class="header">
  32 <th style="text-align: left;"><a href=""></a></th>
  33 <th style="text-align: right;"></th>
  34 </tr>
  35 </thead>
  36 <tbody>
  37 <tr class="odd">
  38 <td style="text-align: left;">Deaths reported so far</td>
  39 <td style="text-align: right;">41381</td>
  40 </tr>
  41 <tr class="even">
  42 <td style="text-align: left;">Total Covid deaths to date (estimated)</td>
  43 <td style="text-align: right;">65583</td>
  44 </tr>
  45 <tr class="odd">
  46 <td style="text-align: left;">Projected total deaths up to 2020-09-13</td>
  47 <td style="text-align: right;">65981</td>
  48 </tr>
  49 </tbody>
  50 </table>
  51 <h2 id="total-deaths">Total deaths</h2>
  52 <p>Time based on days since 10 deaths</p>
  53 <figure>
  54 <img src="covid_deaths_total_linear.png" alt="Total deaths" /><figcaption>Total deaths</figcaption>
  55 </figure>
  56 <table>
  57 <thead>
  58 <tr class="header">
  59 <th style="text-align: left;">Country ID</th>
  60 <th style="text-align: left;">Country name</th>
  61 <th style="text-align: right;">Total deaths</th>
  62 </tr>
  63 </thead>
  64 <tbody>
  65 <tr class="odd">
  66 <td style="text-align: left;">DE</td>
  67 <td style="text-align: left;">Germany</td>
  68 <td style="text-align: right;">9243</td>
  69 </tr>
  70 <tr class="even">
  71 <td style="text-align: left;">ES</td>
  72 <td style="text-align: left;">Spain</td>
  73 <td style="text-align: right;">28670</td>
  74 </tr>
  75 <tr class="odd">
  76 <td style="text-align: left;">FR</td>
  77 <td style="text-align: left;">France</td>
  78 <td style="text-align: right;">30451</td>
  79 </tr>
  80 <tr class="even">
  81 <td style="text-align: left;">IE</td>
  82 <td style="text-align: left;">Ireland</td>
  83 <td style="text-align: right;">1775</td>
  84 </tr>
  85 <tr class="odd">
  86 <td style="text-align: left;">IT</td>
  87 <td style="text-align: left;">Italy</td>
  88 <td style="text-align: right;">35405</td>
  89 </tr>
  90 <tr class="even">
  91 <td style="text-align: left;">UK</td>
  92 <td style="text-align: left;">United_Kingdom</td>
  93 <td style="text-align: right;">41381</td>
  94 </tr>
  95 </tbody>
  96 </table>
  97 <h2 id="all-causes-deaths-uk">All-causes deaths, UK</h2>
  98 <figure>
  99 <img src="deaths-radar.png" alt="All-causes deaths" /><figcaption>All-causes deaths</figcaption>
 100 </figure>
 101 <h3 id="excess-deaths">Excess deaths</h3>
 102 <p>From week ending 20 March 2020 until week ending 03 July 2020, there were approximately <strong>64734</strong> excess deaths, over the average for the previous five years.</p>
 103 <p>In that period, the UK reported 40532 Covid deaths. In the last three weeks for which excess deaths have been reported, the excess deaths have been 1.000 higher than the Covid-reported deaths.</p>
 104 <p>The UK has reported 41381 deaths so far. Using the scaling factor above (for Covid-19 deaths after the ONS figures), I infer that there have been <strong>65583</strong> total deaths so far.</p>
 105 <h2 id="deaths-per-day">Deaths per day</h2>
 106 <p>Based on a 7-day moving average</p>
 107 <figure>
 108 <img src="covid_deaths_per_day_7.png" alt="Deaths per day" /><figcaption>Deaths per day</figcaption>
 109 </figure>
 110 <h2 id="projected-deaths">Projected deaths</h2>
 111 <p>The UK’s daily deaths data is very similar to Italy’s. If I use the Italian data for the next 24 days (from 25 May 2020 onwards), the UK will report 41684 deaths on day 183 of the epidemic.</p>
 112 <p>Using the excess deaths scaling from above, that will translate into <strong>65981</strong> Covid deaths total.</p>
 113 <h2 id="deaths-doubling-times">Deaths doubling times</h2>
 114 <p>Based on a 7-day moving average</p>
 115 <figure>
 116 <img src="covid_doubling_times_7.png" alt="Deaths doubling times" /><figcaption>Deaths doubling times</figcaption>
 117 </figure>
 118 <h2 id="cases-per-day-and-lockdown-dates">Cases per day and lockdown dates</h2>
 119 <p>Based on a 7-day moving average</p>
 120 <figure>
 121 <img src="cases_per_day_with_lockdown.png" alt="Cases per day" /><figcaption>Cases per day</figcaption>
 122 </figure>
 123 <table>
 124 <thead>
 125 <tr class="header">
 126 <th style="text-align: left;">Country ID</th>
 127 <th style="text-align: left;">Country name</th>
 128 <th style="text-align: right;">Most recent daily cases</th>
 129 <th style="text-align: right;">Most recent daily deaths</th>
 130 </tr>
 131 </thead>
 132 <tbody>
 133 <tr class="odd">
 134 <td style="text-align: left;">DE</td>
 135 <td style="text-align: left;">Germany</td>
 136 <td style="text-align: right;">1199</td>
 137 <td style="text-align: right;">5</td>
 138 </tr>
 139 <tr class="even">
 140 <td style="text-align: left;">ES</td>
 141 <td style="text-align: left;">Spain</td>
 142 <td style="text-align: right;">5369</td>
 143 <td style="text-align: right;">13</td>
 144 </tr>
 145 <tr class="odd">
 146 <td style="text-align: left;">FR</td>
 147 <td style="text-align: left;">France</td>
 148 <td style="text-align: right;">2442</td>
 149 <td style="text-align: right;">14</td>
 150 </tr>
 151 <tr class="even">
 152 <td style="text-align: left;">IE</td>
 153 <td style="text-align: left;">Ireland</td>
 154 <td style="text-align: right;">100</td>
 155 <td style="text-align: right;">0</td>
 156 </tr>
 157 <tr class="odd">
 158 <td style="text-align: left;">IT</td>
 159 <td style="text-align: left;">Italy</td>
 160 <td style="text-align: right;">486</td>
 161 <td style="text-align: right;">27</td>
 162 </tr>
 163 <tr class="even">
 164 <td style="text-align: left;">UK</td>
 165 <td style="text-align: left;">United_Kingdom</td>
 166 <td style="text-align: right;">1071</td>
 167 <td style="text-align: right;">10</td>
 168 </tr>
 169 </tbody>
 170 </table>
 171 <p>(Figures are 7-day averages)</p>
 172 <h1 id="data-sources">Data sources</h1>
 173 <blockquote>
 174 <p>Covid data from <a href="https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide">European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control</a></p>
 175 </blockquote>
 176 <blockquote>
 177 <p>Population data from:</p>
 178 </blockquote>
 179 <ul>
 180 <li><a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales">Office of National Statistics</a> (Endland and Wales) Weeks start on a Saturday.</li>
 181 <li><a href="https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths">Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency</a> (Northern Ireland). Weeks start on a Saturday. Note that the week numbers don’t match the England and Wales data.</li>
 182 <li><a href="https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/weekly-data-on-births-and-deaths">National Records of Scotland</a> (Scotland). Note that Scotland uses ISO8601 week numbers, which start on a Monday.</li>
 183 </ul>
 184 <blockquote>
 185 <p><a href="https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=tree">Source code available</a></p>
 186 </blockquote>
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