covid_summary.md

   1 % Covid death data summary
   2 % Neil Smith
   3 % Created on 2021-04-10
   4
   5 > Last UK data from 10 Apr 2021.  Last international data from 04 Apr 2021.
   6
   7 ## Headlines (UK data)
   8
   9 | []() | |
  10 |:---|---:|
  11 | Deaths reported so far | 127080 |
  12 | Deaths in last 30 days | 1914 |
  13 | Cases in last 30 days  | 120981 |
  14
  15 ## International comparison
  16
  17 Based on weekly data. Last data from 04 Apr 2021
  18
  19 ### Total deaths
  20
  21 ![Total deaths](covid_deaths_total_linear.png)
  22
  23 | Country ID | Country name | Total deaths |
  24 |:-----------|:-------------|-------------:|
  25 | BEL | Belgium | 23198 |
  26 | DEU | Germany | 77013 |
  27 | ESP | Spain | 75783 |
  28 | FRA | France | 96678 |
  29 | GBR | United Kingdom | 126836 |
  30 | IRL | Ireland | 4718 |
  31 | ITA | Italy | 111030 |
  32
  33 ### Deaths per week
  34
  35 ![Deaths per week](covid_deaths_per_week.png)
  36
  37 ![Deaths per week, last 6 weeks](deaths_by_date_last_6_weeks.png)
  38
  39 ## UK data
  40
  41 ### Total deaths
  42
  43 Deaths reported up to 10 Apr 2021: 127080
  44
  45 ![Total deaths](cases_and_deaths.png)
  46
  47 ![Cases and deaths in last 60 days](cases_and_deaths_last_60_days.png)
  48
  49 ![Deaths compared to past five years](deaths_radar_2021.png)
  50
  51 ### Hospital care
  52 Based on a 7-day moving average
  53
  54 ![Cases, admissions, deaths](cases_admissions_deaths.png)
  55
  56 Due to the large scale differences between the three measures, they are all normalised to show changes since 01 August 2020.
  57
  58 People in hospital, and on mechanical ventilators
  59
  60 ![People in hospital and on mechancial ventilators](people_in_hospital.png)
  61
  62 ### Testing effectiveness
  63
  64 A question about testing is whether more detected cases is a result of more tests being done or is because the number of cases is increasing. One way of telling the differeence is by looking at the fraction of tests that are positive.
  65
  66 ![Positive tests and cases](tests_and_cases.png)
  67
  68 Numbers of positive tests and cases, 7-day moving average.
  69 Note the different y-axes
  70
  71 ![Fraction of tests with positive result](fraction_positive_tests.png)
  72
  73 Fraction of tests with a positive result, both daily figures and 7-day moving average.
  74
  75
  76 ![Tests against fraction positive, trajectory](fraction_positive_tests_vs_tests.png)
  77
  78 The trajectory of tests done vs fraction positive tests.
  79
  80 Points higher indicate more tests; points to the right indicate more positive tests.More tests being done with the same infection prevelance will move the point up and to the left.
  81
  82
  83 ![Tests against fraction positive, trajectory](tests_vs_fraction_positive_animation.png)
  84
  85 # Data sources
  86
  87 > Covid data from [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide)
  88
  89 > Population data from:
  90
  91 * [Office of National Statistics](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales) (Endland and Wales) Weeks start on a Saturday.
  92 * [Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency](https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths) (Northern Ireland). Weeks start on a Saturday. Note that the week numbers don't match the England and Wales data.
  93 * [National Records of Scotland](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/weekly-data-on-births-and-deaths) (Scotland). Note that Scotland uses ISO8601 week numbers, which start on a Monday.
  94
  95 > [Source code available](https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=tree)
  96