covid_summary.md

   1 % Covid death data summary
   2 % Neil Smith
   3 % Created on 2020-05-24
   4
   5 > Last UK data from 2020-05-23
   6
   7 ## Headlines
   8
   9 | []() | |
  10 |:---|---:|
  11 | Deaths reported so far | 30615 |
  12 | Total Covid deaths to date | 64827 |
  13 | Projected total deaths up to 2020-06-09 | 71110 |
  14
  15
  16 ## Total deaths
  17 Time based on days since 10 deaths
  18
  19 ![Total deaths](covid_deaths_total_linear.png)
  20
  21 | Country ID | Country name | Total deaths |
  22 |:-----------|:-------------|-------------:|
  23 | DE | Germany | 8216 |
  24 | ES | Spain | 28628 |
  25 | FR | France | 28289 |
  26 | IE | Ireland | 1592 |
  27 | IT | Italy | 32616 |
  28 | UK | United_Kingdom | 36393 |
  29
  30
  31 ## All-causes deaths, UK
  32
  33 ![All-causes deaths](deaths-radar.png)
  34
  35 ### Excess deaths
  36
  37 From week ending 20 March 2020, there have been approximately **54535** excess deaths, over the average for the previous five years.
  38
  39 In that period, the UK reported 30615 Covid deaths.
  40 That means the actual number of Covid death is about 1.78 times higher than the reported figures.
  41
  42 The UK has reported 36393 deaths so far.
  43 Using the scaling factor above, I infer that there have been **64827** total deaths so far.
  44
  45
  46 ## Deaths per day
  47 Based on a 7-day moving average
  48
  49 ![Deaths per day](covid_deaths_per_day_7.png)
  50
  51
  52 ## Projected deaths
  53 The UK's daily deaths data is very similar to Italy's.
  54 If I use the Italian data for the next 16 days, the UK will report 39920 deaths on day 87 of the epidemic.
  55
  56 Using the excess deaths scaling from above, that will translate into **71110** Covid deaths total.
  57
  58
  59 ## Deaths doubling times
  60 Based on a 7-day moving average
  61
  62 ![Deaths doubling times](covid_doubling_times_7.png)
  63
  64 # Data sources
  65
  66 > Covid data from [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide)
  67
  68 > Population data from:
  69
  70 * [Office of National Statistics](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales) (Endland and Wales) Weeks start on a Saturday.
  71 * [Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency](https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths) (Northern Ireland). Weeks start on a Saturday. Note that the week numbers don't match the England and Wales data.
  72 * [National Records of Scotland](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/weekly-data-on-births-and-deaths) (Scotland). Note that Scotland uses ISO8601 week numbers, which start on a Monday.
  73
  74 > [Souce code available](https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=tree)
  75