Last UK data from 2020-05-23

Headlines

Total deaths

Time based on days since 10 deaths

All-causes deaths, UK

Excess deaths

From week ending 20 March 2020, there have been approximately 54535 excess deaths, over the average for the previous five years.

In that period, the UK reported 30615 Covid deaths. That means the actual number of Covid death is about 1.78 times higher than the reported figures.

The UK has reported 36393 deaths so far. Using the scaling factor above, I infer that there have been 64827 total deaths so far.

Deaths per day

Based on a 7-day moving average

Projected deaths

The UK’s daily deaths data is very similar to Italy’s. If I use the Italian data for the next 16 days, the UK will report 39920 deaths on day 87 of the epidemic.

Using the excess deaths scaling from above, that will translate into 71110 Covid deaths total.

Deaths doubling times

Based on a 7-day moving average

Data sources

Covid data from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control

Population data from:

• Office of National Statistics (Endland and Wales) Weeks start on a Saturday.
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (Northern Ireland). Weeks start on a Saturday. Note that the week numbers don’t match the England and Wales data.
• National Records of Scotland (Scotland). Note that Scotland uses ISO8601 week numbers, which start on a Monday.

Souce code available