+++ /dev/null
-{
- "cells": [
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 23,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "import itertools\n",
- "import collections\n",
- "import json\n",
- "import pandas as pd\n",
- "import numpy as np\n",
- "from scipy.stats import gmean\n",
- "import datetime\n",
- "\n",
- "import matplotlib as mpl\n",
- "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
- "%matplotlib inline"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 66,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
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- " <thead>\n",
- " <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
- " <th></th>\n",
- " <th>cases</th>\n",
- " <th>deaths</th>\n",
- " <th>cases_culm</th>\n",
- " <th>deaths_culm</th>\n",
- " <th>cases_diff</th>\n",
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- " <th>deaths_g4</th>\n",
- " <th>deaths_g7</th>\n",
- " <th>doubling_time</th>\n",
- " <th>doubling_time_7</th>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <th>dateRep</th>\n",
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- " <th></th>\n",
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- " <td>2019-12-31</td>\n",
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- " <td>NaN</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
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- " <td>...</td>\n",
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- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-12-06</td>\n",
- " <td>15539</td>\n",
- " <td>397</td>\n",
- " <td>1705971</td>\n",
- " <td>61014</td>\n",
- " <td>-759.0</td>\n",
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- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-12-07</td>\n",
- " <td>17271</td>\n",
- " <td>231</td>\n",
- " <td>1723242</td>\n",
- " <td>61245</td>\n",
- " <td>1732.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-166.0</td>\n",
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- " <td>428.571429</td>\n",
- " <td>371.927543</td>\n",
- " <td>395.655665</td>\n",
- " <td>114.486195</td>\n",
- " <td>107.641011</td>\n",
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- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-12-08</td>\n",
- " <td>14718</td>\n",
- " <td>189</td>\n",
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- " <td>61434</td>\n",
- " <td>-2553.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-42.0</td>\n",
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- " <td>391.637191</td>\n",
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- " <td>109.076442</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-12-09</td>\n",
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- " <td>110.241037</td>\n",
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- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-12-10</td>\n",
- " <td>16578</td>\n",
- " <td>533</td>\n",
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- " <td>114.322369</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " </tbody>\n",
- "</table>\n",
- "<p>346 rows × 12 columns</p>\n",
- "</div>"
- ],
- "text/plain": [
- " cases deaths cases_culm deaths_culm cases_diff deaths_diff \\\n",
- "dateRep \n",
- "2019-12-31 0 0 0 0 NaN NaN \n",
- "2020-01-01 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 \n",
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- "2020-01-03 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 \n",
- "2020-01-04 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 \n",
- "... ... ... ... ... ... ... \n",
- "2020-12-06 15539 397 1705971 61014 -759.0 -107.0 \n",
- "2020-12-07 17271 231 1723242 61245 1732.0 -166.0 \n",
- "2020-12-08 14718 189 1737960 61434 -2553.0 -42.0 \n",
- "2020-12-09 12281 599 1750241 62033 -2437.0 410.0 \n",
- "2020-12-10 16578 533 1766819 62566 4297.0 -66.0 \n",
- "\n",
- " cases_m7 deaths_m7 deaths_g4 deaths_g7 doubling_time \\\n",
- "dateRep \n",
- "2019-12-31 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 NaN \n",
- "2020-01-01 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 NaN \n",
- "2020-01-02 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 NaN \n",
- "2020-01-03 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 NaN \n",
- "2020-01-04 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 NaN \n",
- "... ... ... ... ... ... \n",
- "2020-12-06 14399.857143 426.285714 481.336835 391.619248 88.209086 \n",
- "2020-12-07 15130.714286 428.571429 371.927543 395.655665 114.486195 \n",
- "2020-12-08 15471.857143 426.571429 305.719899 391.637191 139.633275 \n",
- "2020-12-09 15307.857143 426.000000 319.207273 391.264999 135.048719 \n",
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- "\n",
- " doubling_time_7 \n",
- "dateRep \n",
- "2019-12-31 NaN \n",
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- "2020-01-02 NaN \n",
- "2020-01-03 NaN \n",
- "2020-01-04 NaN \n",
- "... ... \n",
- "2020-12-06 108.338041 \n",
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- "2020-12-08 109.076442 \n",
- "2020-12-09 110.241037 \n",
- "2020-12-10 114.322369 \n",
- "\n",
- "[346 rows x 12 columns]"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 66,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "data_by_day = pd.read_csv('data_by_day_uk.csv', index_col='dateRep', parse_dates=True)\n",
- "data_by_day"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
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- " <td>2020-01-03</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-01-10</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-01-17</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-01-24</td>\n",
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- " <td>14461.0</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-01-31</td>\n",
- " <td>13123.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12799.0</td>\n",
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- " <td>14188.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12571.0</td>\n",
- " <td>14560</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-02-07</td>\n",
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- " <td>13222.0</td>\n",
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- " <td>13805.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12697.0</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-02-14</td>\n",
- " <td>12412.0</td>\n",
- " <td>13347.0</td>\n",
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- " <td>13212.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12016.0</td>\n",
- " <td>13510</td>\n",
- " <td>13202.0</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-02-21</td>\n",
- " <td>12300.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12877.0</td>\n",
- " <td>13753.0</td>\n",
- " <td>13330.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12718.0</td>\n",
- " <td>13071</td>\n",
- " <td>13149.8</td>\n",
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- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-02-28</td>\n",
- " <td>12334.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12479.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12190.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12819.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12733.0</td>\n",
- " <td>13181</td>\n",
- " <td>12680.4</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-03-06</td>\n",
- " <td>12415.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12396.0</td>\n",
- " <td>14859.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12580.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12493.0</td>\n",
- " <td>13007</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-03-13</td>\n",
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- " <td>12489.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12475</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-03-20</td>\n",
- " <td>12112.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11797.0</td>\n",
- " <td>13397.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11833.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10983.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12027</td>\n",
- " <td>12007.4</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-03-27</td>\n",
- " <td>12507.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11260.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11310.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11453.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11738.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11987</td>\n",
- " <td>11549.6</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-04-03</td>\n",
- " <td>18565.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11445.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12272.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11305.0</td>\n",
- " <td>13060.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10325</td>\n",
- " <td>11681.4</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-04-10</td>\n",
- " <td>20929.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11661.0</td>\n",
- " <td>13843.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9761.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12757.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11575</td>\n",
- " <td>11919.4</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-04-17</td>\n",
- " <td>24691.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10243.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12639.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11000.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12310.0</td>\n",
- " <td>13061</td>\n",
- " <td>11850.6</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-04-24</td>\n",
- " <td>24303.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11452.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11596.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12356.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11795.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12023</td>\n",
- " <td>11844.4</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-01</td>\n",
- " <td>20059.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12695.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11538.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10372.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10401.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11586</td>\n",
- " <td>11318.4</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-08</td>\n",
- " <td>14428.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10361.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9821.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12114.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12002.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10138</td>\n",
- " <td>10887.2</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-15</td>\n",
- " <td>16390.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11717.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11386.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11718.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11222.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11692</td>\n",
- " <td>11547.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-22</td>\n",
- " <td>13839.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11653.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10974.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11431.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11013.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11334</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-05-29</td>\n",
- " <td>11265.0</td>\n",
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- " <td>9192.0</td>\n",
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- " <td>2020-06-05</td>\n",
- " <td>12106.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11461.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11259.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11134.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11171.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11603</td>\n",
- " <td>11325.6</td>\n",
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- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-12</td>\n",
- " <td>11302.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10754.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10535.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10698.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10673.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10858</td>\n",
- " <td>10703.6</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-19</td>\n",
- " <td>10694.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10807.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10514.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10930.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10611.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10629</td>\n",
- " <td>10698.2</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-26</td>\n",
- " <td>10282.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10824.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10529.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10624.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10526.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10525</td>\n",
- " <td>10605.6</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-03</td>\n",
- " <td>10412.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10328.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10565.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10565.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10412.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10545</td>\n",
- " <td>10483.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-10</td>\n",
- " <td>9941.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10512.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10467.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10643.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10647.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10278</td>\n",
- " <td>10509.4</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-17</td>\n",
- " <td>10096.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10324.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10353.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10426.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10672.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10028</td>\n",
- " <td>10360.6</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-24</td>\n",
- " <td>10159.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10422.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10356.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10147.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10612.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10021</td>\n",
- " <td>10311.6</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-31</td>\n",
- " <td>10262.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10564.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10408.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10239.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10433.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9893</td>\n",
- " <td>10307.4</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-07</td>\n",
- " <td>10236.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10406.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10542.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10278.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10439.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10153</td>\n",
- " <td>10363.6</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-14</td>\n",
- " <td>10592.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10405.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10091.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10569.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10312.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10352</td>\n",
- " <td>10345.8</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-21</td>\n",
- " <td>10990.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10279.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10199.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10698.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10637.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10354</td>\n",
- " <td>10433.4</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-28</td>\n",
- " <td>10364.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9478.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9046.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9372.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9226.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10239</td>\n",
- " <td>9472.2</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-04</td>\n",
- " <td>9023.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10918.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10680.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10781.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10681.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9092</td>\n",
- " <td>10430.4</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-11</td>\n",
- " <td>11176.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10892.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10496.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10692.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10401.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10573</td>\n",
- " <td>10610.8</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-18</td>\n",
- " <td>10797.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10792.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10498.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10875.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10183.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10381</td>\n",
- " <td>10545.8</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-25</td>\n",
- " <td>10890.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10954.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10463.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11027.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10278.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10826</td>\n",
- " <td>10709.6</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-02</td>\n",
- " <td>11468.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11113.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10869.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11101.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10671.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10700</td>\n",
- " <td>10890.8</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-09</td>\n",
- " <td>11373.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11403.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11048.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11357.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11016.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11108</td>\n",
- " <td>11186.4</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-16</td>\n",
- " <td>11943.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11625.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11177.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11389.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11134.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10799</td>\n",
- " <td>11224.8</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-23</td>\n",
- " <td>12317.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11415.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10885.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11152.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11048.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10966</td>\n",
- " <td>11093.2</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-30</td>\n",
- " <td>12517.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11567.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10866.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11366.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11463.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11026</td>\n",
- " <td>11257.6</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-06</td>\n",
- " <td>13448.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12177.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11588.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11767.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11803.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11312</td>\n",
- " <td>11729.4</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-13</td>\n",
- " <td>13798.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12146.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11552.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11773.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12209.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11338</td>\n",
- " <td>11803.6</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-20</td>\n",
- " <td>14291.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12472.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11289.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12102.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12064.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11178</td>\n",
- " <td>11821.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-27</td>\n",
- " <td>14132.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12455.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11392.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12046.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11901.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11216</td>\n",
- " <td>11802.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-12-04</td>\n",
- " <td>NaN</td>\n",
- " <td>12275.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11687.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12342.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12733.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11748</td>\n",
- " <td>12157.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-12-11</td>\n",
- " <td>NaN</td>\n",
- " <td>12853.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12078.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12924.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12076.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11713</td>\n",
- " <td>12328.8</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-12-18</td>\n",
- " <td>NaN</td>\n",
- " <td>13566.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12649.0</td>\n",
- " <td>14308.0</td>\n",
- " <td>13137.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12136</td>\n",
- " <td>13159.2</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-12-25</td>\n",
- " <td>NaN</td>\n",
- " <td>8727.0</td>\n",
- " <td>8384.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9904.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9335.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9806</td>\n",
- " <td>9231.2</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " </tbody>\n",
- "</table>\n",
- "</div>"
- ],
- "text/plain": [
- " total_2020 total_2019 total_2018 total_2017 total_2016 \\\n",
- "week_ended \n",
- "2020-01-03 13768.0 12424.0 14701.0 13612.0 14863.0 \n",
- "2020-01-10 16020.0 14487.0 17430.0 15528.0 13154.0 \n",
- "2020-01-17 14723.0 13545.0 16355.0 15231.0 13060.0 \n",
- "2020-01-24 13429.0 13283.0 15971.0 14461.0 12859.0 \n",
- "2020-01-31 13123.0 12799.0 15087.0 14188.0 12571.0 \n",
- "2020-02-07 12534.0 13222.0 14111.0 13805.0 12697.0 \n",
- "2020-02-14 12412.0 13347.0 13925.0 13212.0 12016.0 \n",
- "2020-02-21 12300.0 12877.0 13753.0 13330.0 12718.0 \n",
- "2020-02-28 12334.0 12479.0 12190.0 12819.0 12733.0 \n",
- "2020-03-06 12415.0 12396.0 14859.0 12580.0 12493.0 \n",
- "2020-03-13 12499.0 12018.0 14367.0 12089.0 12489.0 \n",
- "2020-03-20 12112.0 11797.0 13397.0 11833.0 10983.0 \n",
- "2020-03-27 12507.0 11260.0 11310.0 11453.0 11738.0 \n",
- "2020-04-03 18565.0 11445.0 12272.0 11305.0 13060.0 \n",
- "2020-04-10 20929.0 11661.0 13843.0 9761.0 12757.0 \n",
- "2020-04-17 24691.0 10243.0 12639.0 11000.0 12310.0 \n",
- "2020-04-24 24303.0 11452.0 11596.0 12356.0 11795.0 \n",
- "2020-05-01 20059.0 12695.0 11538.0 10372.0 10401.0 \n",
- "2020-05-08 14428.0 10361.0 9821.0 12114.0 12002.0 \n",
- "2020-05-15 16390.0 11717.0 11386.0 11718.0 11222.0 \n",
- "2020-05-22 13839.0 11653.0 10974.0 11431.0 11013.0 \n",
- "2020-05-29 11265.0 9534.0 9397.0 9603.0 9192.0 \n",
- "2020-06-05 12106.0 11461.0 11259.0 11134.0 11171.0 \n",
- "2020-06-12 11302.0 10754.0 10535.0 10698.0 10673.0 \n",
- "2020-06-19 10694.0 10807.0 10514.0 10930.0 10611.0 \n",
- "2020-06-26 10282.0 10824.0 10529.0 10624.0 10526.0 \n",
- "2020-07-03 10412.0 10328.0 10565.0 10565.0 10412.0 \n",
- "2020-07-10 9941.0 10512.0 10467.0 10643.0 10647.0 \n",
- "2020-07-17 10096.0 10324.0 10353.0 10426.0 10672.0 \n",
- "2020-07-24 10159.0 10422.0 10356.0 10147.0 10612.0 \n",
- "2020-07-31 10262.0 10564.0 10408.0 10239.0 10433.0 \n",
- "2020-08-07 10236.0 10406.0 10542.0 10278.0 10439.0 \n",
- "2020-08-14 10592.0 10405.0 10091.0 10569.0 10312.0 \n",
- "2020-08-21 10990.0 10279.0 10199.0 10698.0 10637.0 \n",
- "2020-08-28 10364.0 9478.0 9046.0 9372.0 9226.0 \n",
- "2020-09-04 9023.0 10918.0 10680.0 10781.0 10681.0 \n",
- "2020-09-11 11176.0 10892.0 10496.0 10692.0 10401.0 \n",
- "2020-09-18 10797.0 10792.0 10498.0 10875.0 10183.0 \n",
- "2020-09-25 10890.0 10954.0 10463.0 11027.0 10278.0 \n",
- "2020-10-02 11468.0 11113.0 10869.0 11101.0 10671.0 \n",
- "2020-10-09 11373.0 11403.0 11048.0 11357.0 11016.0 \n",
- "2020-10-16 11943.0 11625.0 11177.0 11389.0 11134.0 \n",
- "2020-10-23 12317.0 11415.0 10885.0 11152.0 11048.0 \n",
- "2020-10-30 12517.0 11567.0 10866.0 11366.0 11463.0 \n",
- "2020-11-06 13448.0 12177.0 11588.0 11767.0 11803.0 \n",
- "2020-11-13 13798.0 12146.0 11552.0 11773.0 12209.0 \n",
- "2020-11-20 14291.0 12472.0 11289.0 12102.0 12064.0 \n",
- "2020-11-27 14132.0 12455.0 11392.0 12046.0 11901.0 \n",
- "2020-12-04 NaN 12275.0 11687.0 12342.0 12733.0 \n",
- "2020-12-11 NaN 12853.0 12078.0 12924.0 12076.0 \n",
- "2020-12-18 NaN 13566.0 12649.0 14308.0 13137.0 \n",
- "2020-12-25 NaN 8727.0 8384.0 9904.0 9335.0 \n",
- "\n",
- " total_2015 previous_mean \n",
- "week_ended \n",
- "2020-01-03 13751 13870.2 \n",
- "2020-01-10 18318 15783.4 \n",
- "2020-01-17 16738 14985.8 \n",
- "2020-01-24 15712 14457.2 \n",
- "2020-01-31 14560 13841.0 \n",
- "2020-02-07 13730 13513.0 \n",
- "2020-02-14 13510 13202.0 \n",
- "2020-02-21 13071 13149.8 \n",
- "2020-02-28 13181 12680.4 \n",
- "2020-03-06 13007 13067.0 \n",
- "2020-03-13 12475 12687.6 \n",
- "2020-03-20 12027 12007.4 \n",
- "2020-03-27 11987 11549.6 \n",
- "2020-04-03 10325 11681.4 \n",
- "2020-04-10 11575 11919.4 \n",
- "2020-04-17 13061 11850.6 \n",
- "2020-04-24 12023 11844.4 \n",
- "2020-05-01 11586 11318.4 \n",
- "2020-05-08 10138 10887.2 \n",
- "2020-05-15 11692 11547.0 \n",
- "2020-05-22 11334 11281.0 \n",
- "2020-05-29 9514 9448.0 \n",
- "2020-06-05 11603 11325.6 \n",
- "2020-06-12 10858 10703.6 \n",
- "2020-06-19 10629 10698.2 \n",
- "2020-06-26 10525 10605.6 \n",
- "2020-07-03 10545 10483.0 \n",
- "2020-07-10 10278 10509.4 \n",
- "2020-07-17 10028 10360.6 \n",
- "2020-07-24 10021 10311.6 \n",
- "2020-07-31 9893 10307.4 \n",
- "2020-08-07 10153 10363.6 \n",
- "2020-08-14 10352 10345.8 \n",
- "2020-08-21 10354 10433.4 \n",
- "2020-08-28 10239 9472.2 \n",
- "2020-09-04 9092 10430.4 \n",
- "2020-09-11 10573 10610.8 \n",
- "2020-09-18 10381 10545.8 \n",
- "2020-09-25 10826 10709.6 \n",
- "2020-10-02 10700 10890.8 \n",
- "2020-10-09 11108 11186.4 \n",
- "2020-10-16 10799 11224.8 \n",
- "2020-10-23 10966 11093.2 \n",
- "2020-10-30 11026 11257.6 \n",
- "2020-11-06 11312 11729.4 \n",
- "2020-11-13 11338 11803.6 \n",
- "2020-11-20 11178 11821.0 \n",
- "2020-11-27 11216 11802.0 \n",
- "2020-12-04 11748 12157.0 \n",
- "2020-12-11 11713 12328.8 \n",
- "2020-12-18 12136 13159.2 \n",
- "2020-12-25 9806 9231.2 "
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 67,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "deaths_by_week = pd.read_csv('deaths_by_week.csv', index_col='week_ended', parse_dates=True)\n",
- "deaths_by_week"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 68,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
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- "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
- " <thead>\n",
- " <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
- " <th></th>\n",
- " <th>cases</th>\n",
- " <th>deaths</th>\n",
- " <th>cases_culm</th>\n",
- " <th>deaths_culm</th>\n",
- " <th>cases_diff</th>\n",
- " <th>deaths_diff</th>\n",
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- " <th>dateRep</th>\n",
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- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-01-03</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
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- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-01-10</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
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- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-01-17</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-01-24</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-01-31</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-02-07</td>\n",
- " <td>4</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>18</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2.571429</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-02-14</td>\n",
- " <td>6</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>54</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>-1.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.0</td>\n",
- " <td>5.142857</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-02-21</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>70</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-02-28</td>\n",
- " <td>12</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>96</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>4.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.0</td>\n",
- " <td>3.714286</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-03-06</td>\n",
- " <td>198</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>681</td>\n",
- " <td>0</td>\n",
- " <td>52.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.0</td>\n",
- " <td>83.571429</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000e+00</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-03-13</td>\n",
- " <td>1062</td>\n",
- " <td>9</td>\n",
- " <td>4279</td>\n",
- " <td>31</td>\n",
- " <td>350.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2.0</td>\n",
- " <td>514.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>4.428571</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>0.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>inf</td>\n",
- " <td>inf</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-03-20</td>\n",
- " <td>4144</td>\n",
- " <td>153</td>\n",
- " <td>23173</td>\n",
- " <td>507</td>\n",
- " <td>593.0</td>\n",
- " <td>44.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2699.142857</td>\n",
- " <td>68.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>79.504887</td>\n",
- " <td>24.257733</td>\n",
- " <td>inf</td>\n",
- " <td>inf</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-03-27</td>\n",
- " <td>12291</td>\n",
- " <td>722</td>\n",
- " <td>78855</td>\n",
- " <td>3197</td>\n",
- " <td>1693.0</td>\n",
- " <td>135.0</td>\n",
- " <td>7954.571429</td>\n",
- " <td>384.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>464.807614</td>\n",
- " <td>327.583287</td>\n",
- " <td>3.577040e+01</td>\n",
- " <td>4.797282e+01</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-03</td>\n",
- " <td>25664</td>\n",
- " <td>2898</td>\n",
- " <td>217112</td>\n",
- " <td>15722</td>\n",
- " <td>2221.0</td>\n",
- " <td>476.0</td>\n",
- " <td>19751.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>1789.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>2153.720503</td>\n",
- " <td>1633.574291</td>\n",
- " <td>3.702651e+01</td>\n",
- " <td>4.931862e+01</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-10</td>\n",
- " <td>33254</td>\n",
- " <td>5909</td>\n",
- " <td>433554</td>\n",
- " <td>47916</td>\n",
- " <td>218.0</td>\n",
- " <td>459.0</td>\n",
- " <td>30920.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>4599.142857</td>\n",
- " <td>5088.524097</td>\n",
- " <td>4416.476344</td>\n",
- " <td>4.749914e+01</td>\n",
- " <td>5.457682e+01</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-17</td>\n",
- " <td>29808</td>\n",
- " <td>6338</td>\n",
- " <td>654431</td>\n",
- " <td>92954</td>\n",
- " <td>-66.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-80.0</td>\n",
- " <td>31553.857143</td>\n",
- " <td>6434.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>6392.991495</td>\n",
- " <td>6269.311492</td>\n",
- " <td>7.441501e+01</td>\n",
- " <td>7.427834e+01</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-24</td>\n",
- " <td>33923</td>\n",
- " <td>5773</td>\n",
- " <td>880467</td>\n",
- " <td>135712</td>\n",
- " <td>422.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-354.0</td>\n",
- " <td>32290.857143</td>\n",
- " <td>6108.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>5745.091557</td>\n",
- " <td>5865.493228</td>\n",
- " <td>1.196415e+02</td>\n",
- " <td>1.151654e+02</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-01</td>\n",
- " <td>32226</td>\n",
- " <td>4881</td>\n",
- " <td>1110138</td>\n",
- " <td>172753</td>\n",
- " <td>-45.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-48.0</td>\n",
- " <td>32810.142857</td>\n",
- " <td>5291.571429</td>\n",
- " <td>4695.525928</td>\n",
- " <td>4919.730986</td>\n",
- " <td>1.890979e+02</td>\n",
- " <td>1.744465e+02</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-08</td>\n",
- " <td>26812</td>\n",
- " <td>3638</td>\n",
- " <td>1320759</td>\n",
- " <td>201454</td>\n",
- " <td>-1615.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-176.0</td>\n",
- " <td>30088.714286</td>\n",
- " <td>4100.142857</td>\n",
- " <td>3669.542328</td>\n",
- " <td>3786.175573</td>\n",
- " <td>2.839767e+02</td>\n",
- " <td>2.627153e+02</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-15</td>\n",
- " <td>21611</td>\n",
- " <td>2671</td>\n",
- " <td>1481545</td>\n",
- " <td>222871</td>\n",
- " <td>-520.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-106.0</td>\n",
- " <td>22969.428571</td>\n",
- " <td>3059.571429</td>\n",
- " <td>2677.524456</td>\n",
- " <td>2785.255471</td>\n",
- " <td>4.329725e+02</td>\n",
- " <td>3.948088e+02</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-22</td>\n",
- " <td>17430</td>\n",
- " <td>2075</td>\n",
- " <td>1614993</td>\n",
- " <td>239208</td>\n",
- " <td>-589.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-79.0</td>\n",
- " <td>19064.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>2333.857143</td>\n",
- " <td>1947.928544</td>\n",
- " <td>2022.217125</td>\n",
- " <td>6.541432e+02</td>\n",
- " <td>5.836862e+02</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-29</td>\n",
- " <td>12658</td>\n",
- " <td>1890</td>\n",
- " <td>1722647</td>\n",
- " <td>252717</td>\n",
- " <td>-883.0</td>\n",
- " <td>70.0</td>\n",
- " <td>15379.142857</td>\n",
- " <td>1929.857143</td>\n",
- " <td>1732.798698</td>\n",
- " <td>1728.444472</td>\n",
- " <td>7.391467e+02</td>\n",
- " <td>7.173609e+02</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-05</td>\n",
- " <td>9772</td>\n",
- " <td>1207</td>\n",
- " <td>1797791</td>\n",
- " <td>263570</td>\n",
- " <td>-479.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-213.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10734.857143</td>\n",
- " <td>1550.428571</td>\n",
- " <td>1257.247277</td>\n",
- " <td>1322.817820</td>\n",
- " <td>1.135760e+03</td>\n",
- " <td>9.930720e+02</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-12</td>\n",
- " <td>7341</td>\n",
- " <td>937</td>\n",
- " <td>1855247</td>\n",
- " <td>271259</td>\n",
- " <td>-157.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-54.0</td>\n",
- " <td>8208.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>1098.428571</td>\n",
- " <td>916.682753</td>\n",
- " <td>940.775215</td>\n",
- " <td>1.593893e+03</td>\n",
- " <td>1.416581e+03</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-19</td>\n",
- " <td>6939</td>\n",
- " <td>591</td>\n",
- " <td>1905027</td>\n",
- " <td>276164</td>\n",
- " <td>-186.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-9.0</td>\n",
- " <td>7111.428571</td>\n",
- " <td>700.714286</td>\n",
- " <td>563.512973</td>\n",
- " <td>593.415144</td>\n",
- " <td>2.647618e+03</td>\n",
- " <td>2.299498e+03</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-26</td>\n",
- " <td>5899</td>\n",
- " <td>480</td>\n",
- " <td>1950419</td>\n",
- " <td>279624</td>\n",
- " <td>-235.0</td>\n",
- " <td>32.0</td>\n",
- " <td>6484.571429</td>\n",
- " <td>494.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>416.381335</td>\n",
- " <td>421.990143</td>\n",
- " <td>3.585584e+03</td>\n",
- " <td>3.235524e+03</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-03</td>\n",
- " <td>4485</td>\n",
- " <td>360</td>\n",
- " <td>1985555</td>\n",
- " <td>282616</td>\n",
- " <td>-127.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-58.0</td>\n",
- " <td>5019.428571</td>\n",
- " <td>427.428571</td>\n",
- " <td>376.617800</td>\n",
- " <td>366.017611</td>\n",
- " <td>4.038218e+03</td>\n",
- " <td>3.764706e+03</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-10</td>\n",
- " <td>4131</td>\n",
- " <td>253</td>\n",
- " <td>2014685</td>\n",
- " <td>284705</td>\n",
- " <td>42.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-10.0</td>\n",
- " <td>4161.428571</td>\n",
- " <td>298.428571</td>\n",
- " <td>248.675598</td>\n",
- " <td>258.540406</td>\n",
- " <td>6.117937e+03</td>\n",
- " <td>5.408341e+03</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-17</td>\n",
- " <td>4266</td>\n",
- " <td>164</td>\n",
- " <td>2044059</td>\n",
- " <td>286128</td>\n",
- " <td>79.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-7.0</td>\n",
- " <td>4196.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>203.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>166.283290</td>\n",
- " <td>171.181184</td>\n",
- " <td>9.430925e+03</td>\n",
- " <td>8.243797e+03</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-24</td>\n",
- " <td>4496</td>\n",
- " <td>107</td>\n",
- " <td>2074665</td>\n",
- " <td>287092</td>\n",
- " <td>1.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-15.0</td>\n",
- " <td>4372.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>137.714286</td>\n",
- " <td>118.278798</td>\n",
- " <td>120.912224</td>\n",
- " <td>1.271636e+04</td>\n",
- " <td>1.165442e+04</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-31</td>\n",
- " <td>3869</td>\n",
- " <td>113</td>\n",
- " <td>2104314</td>\n",
- " <td>287889</td>\n",
- " <td>73.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-9.0</td>\n",
- " <td>4235.571429</td>\n",
- " <td>113.857143</td>\n",
- " <td>79.927160</td>\n",
- " <td>82.049806</td>\n",
- " <td>inf</td>\n",
- " <td>inf</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-07</td>\n",
- " <td>5833</td>\n",
- " <td>89</td>\n",
- " <td>2139062</td>\n",
- " <td>288530</td>\n",
- " <td>104.0</td>\n",
- " <td>18.0</td>\n",
- " <td>4964.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>91.571429</td>\n",
- " <td>26.017737</td>\n",
- " <td>9.273227</td>\n",
- " <td>inf</td>\n",
- " <td>inf</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-14</td>\n",
- " <td>6793</td>\n",
- " <td>89</td>\n",
- " <td>2182748</td>\n",
- " <td>289102</td>\n",
- " <td>179.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.0</td>\n",
- " <td>6240.857143</td>\n",
- " <td>81.714286</td>\n",
- " <td>77.224731</td>\n",
- " <td>64.479846</td>\n",
- " <td>2.011138e+04</td>\n",
- " <td>2.245319e+04</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-21</td>\n",
- " <td>7353</td>\n",
- " <td>56</td>\n",
- " <td>2235156</td>\n",
- " <td>289635</td>\n",
- " <td>53.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-12.0</td>\n",
- " <td>7486.857143</td>\n",
- " <td>76.142857</td>\n",
- " <td>57.415692</td>\n",
- " <td>61.994254</td>\n",
- " <td>2.822494e+04</td>\n",
- " <td>2.333077e+04</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-28</td>\n",
- " <td>8088</td>\n",
- " <td>74</td>\n",
- " <td>2287182</td>\n",
- " <td>290081</td>\n",
- " <td>340.0</td>\n",
- " <td>6.0</td>\n",
- " <td>7432.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>63.714286</td>\n",
- " <td>54.517208</td>\n",
- " <td>49.287140</td>\n",
- " <td>2.710076e+04</td>\n",
- " <td>2.908195e+04</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-04</td>\n",
- " <td>10043</td>\n",
- " <td>50</td>\n",
- " <td>2350991</td>\n",
- " <td>290529</td>\n",
- " <td>213.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9115.571429</td>\n",
- " <td>64.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>45.709346</td>\n",
- " <td>49.612299</td>\n",
- " <td>4.258905e+04</td>\n",
- " <td>3.069208e+04</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-11</td>\n",
- " <td>17727</td>\n",
- " <td>81</td>\n",
- " <td>2449684</td>\n",
- " <td>290979</td>\n",
- " <td>1184.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.0</td>\n",
- " <td>14099.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>64.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>55.103648</td>\n",
- " <td>46.741257</td>\n",
- " <td>2.723477e+04</td>\n",
- " <td>3.156956e+04</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-18</td>\n",
- " <td>23476</td>\n",
- " <td>97</td>\n",
- " <td>2600541</td>\n",
- " <td>291555</td>\n",
- " <td>476.0</td>\n",
- " <td>7.0</td>\n",
- " <td>21551.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>82.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>76.375361</td>\n",
- " <td>65.232921</td>\n",
- " <td>2.020206e+04</td>\n",
- " <td>2.224637e+04</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-25</td>\n",
- " <td>34749</td>\n",
- " <td>197</td>\n",
- " <td>2798819</td>\n",
- " <td>292645</td>\n",
- " <td>3239.0</td>\n",
- " <td>19.0</td>\n",
- " <td>28325.428571</td>\n",
- " <td>155.714286</td>\n",
- " <td>161.214801</td>\n",
- " <td>143.205548</td>\n",
- " <td>8.901465e+03</td>\n",
- " <td>1.026870e+04</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-02</td>\n",
- " <td>43815</td>\n",
- " <td>300</td>\n",
- " <td>3086093</td>\n",
- " <td>294313</td>\n",
- " <td>280.0</td>\n",
- " <td>19.0</td>\n",
- " <td>41039.142857</td>\n",
- " <td>238.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>230.060916</td>\n",
- " <td>211.544534</td>\n",
- " <td>6.473932e+03</td>\n",
- " <td>6.827996e+03</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-09</td>\n",
- " <td>101637</td>\n",
- " <td>390</td>\n",
- " <td>3601915</td>\n",
- " <td>296856</td>\n",
- " <td>10626.0</td>\n",
- " <td>18.0</td>\n",
- " <td>73688.857143</td>\n",
- " <td>363.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>349.704548</td>\n",
- " <td>322.563025</td>\n",
- " <td>4.291457e+03</td>\n",
- " <td>4.498907e+03</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-16</td>\n",
- " <td>111807</td>\n",
- " <td>701</td>\n",
- " <td>4351113</td>\n",
- " <td>300605</td>\n",
- " <td>1438.0</td>\n",
- " <td>61.0</td>\n",
- " <td>107028.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>535.571429</td>\n",
- " <td>577.496284</td>\n",
- " <td>499.621044</td>\n",
- " <td>2.571463e+03</td>\n",
- " <td>3.038155e+03</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-23</td>\n",
- " <td>136845</td>\n",
- " <td>1054</td>\n",
- " <td>5220544</td>\n",
- " <td>306852</td>\n",
- " <td>2260.0</td>\n",
- " <td>51.0</td>\n",
- " <td>124204.428571</td>\n",
- " <td>892.428571</td>\n",
- " <td>903.798899</td>\n",
- " <td>829.790586</td>\n",
- " <td>1.681682e+03</td>\n",
- " <td>1.816643e+03</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-30</td>\n",
- " <td>154873</td>\n",
- " <td>1608</td>\n",
- " <td>6278688</td>\n",
- " <td>316205</td>\n",
- " <td>1827.0</td>\n",
- " <td>91.0</td>\n",
- " <td>151163.428571</td>\n",
- " <td>1336.142857</td>\n",
- " <td>1363.375912</td>\n",
- " <td>1244.302740</td>\n",
- " <td>1.144987e+03</td>\n",
- " <td>1.253041e+03</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-06</td>\n",
- " <td>157857</td>\n",
- " <td>2165</td>\n",
- " <td>7386321</td>\n",
- " <td>329466</td>\n",
- " <td>1073.0</td>\n",
- " <td>98.0</td>\n",
- " <td>158233.285714</td>\n",
- " <td>1894.428571</td>\n",
- " <td>1869.072858</td>\n",
- " <td>1756.119532</td>\n",
- " <td>8.748452e+02</td>\n",
- " <td>9.175873e+02</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-13</td>\n",
- " <td>166998</td>\n",
- " <td>2808</td>\n",
- " <td>8503996</td>\n",
- " <td>346708</td>\n",
- " <td>9332.0</td>\n",
- " <td>185.0</td>\n",
- " <td>159667.857143</td>\n",
- " <td>2463.142857</td>\n",
- " <td>2401.361299</td>\n",
- " <td>2249.701288</td>\n",
- " <td>7.273019e+02</td>\n",
- " <td>7.528714e+02</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-20</td>\n",
- " <td>163061</td>\n",
- " <td>2847</td>\n",
- " <td>9716180</td>\n",
- " <td>366945</td>\n",
- " <td>-10555.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-62.0</td>\n",
- " <td>173169.142857</td>\n",
- " <td>2891.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>2708.892132</td>\n",
- " <td>2619.031072</td>\n",
- " <td>6.907600e+02</td>\n",
- " <td>6.823344e+02</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-27</td>\n",
- " <td>121306</td>\n",
- " <td>3256</td>\n",
- " <td>10676794</td>\n",
- " <td>388295</td>\n",
- " <td>-5360.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-3.0</td>\n",
- " <td>137230.571429</td>\n",
- " <td>3050.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>2934.861534</td>\n",
- " <td>2753.026893</td>\n",
- " <td>6.765205e+02</td>\n",
- " <td>6.882603e+02</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-12-04</td>\n",
- " <td>99572</td>\n",
- " <td>3082</td>\n",
- " <td>11417933</td>\n",
- " <td>411137</td>\n",
- " <td>-2677.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-84.0</td>\n",
- " <td>105877.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>3263.142857</td>\n",
- " <td>2966.168647</td>\n",
- " <td>2988.661808</td>\n",
- " <td>7.059253e+02</td>\n",
- " <td>6.717400e+02</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-12-11</td>\n",
- " <td>92685</td>\n",
- " <td>2453</td>\n",
- " <td>10374665</td>\n",
- " <td>368909</td>\n",
- " <td>1700.0</td>\n",
- " <td>119.0</td>\n",
- " <td>90123.714286</td>\n",
- " <td>2555.000000</td>\n",
- " <td>2356.150688</td>\n",
- " <td>2352.938908</td>\n",
- " <td>6.829136e+02</td>\n",
- " <td>6.544146e+02</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " </tbody>\n",
- "</table>\n",
- "</div>"
- ],
- "text/plain": [
- " cases deaths cases_culm deaths_culm cases_diff deaths_diff \\\n",
- "dateRep \n",
- "2020-01-03 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 \n",
- "2020-01-10 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 \n",
- "2020-01-17 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 \n",
- "2020-01-24 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 \n",
- "2020-01-31 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 \n",
- "2020-02-07 4 0 18 0 1.0 0.0 \n",
- "2020-02-14 6 0 54 0 -1.0 0.0 \n",
- "2020-02-21 0 0 70 0 0.0 0.0 \n",
- "2020-02-28 12 0 96 0 4.0 0.0 \n",
- "2020-03-06 198 0 681 0 52.0 0.0 \n",
- "2020-03-13 1062 9 4279 31 350.0 2.0 \n",
- "2020-03-20 4144 153 23173 507 593.0 44.0 \n",
- "2020-03-27 12291 722 78855 3197 1693.0 135.0 \n",
- "2020-04-03 25664 2898 217112 15722 2221.0 476.0 \n",
- "2020-04-10 33254 5909 433554 47916 218.0 459.0 \n",
- "2020-04-17 29808 6338 654431 92954 -66.0 -80.0 \n",
- "2020-04-24 33923 5773 880467 135712 422.0 -354.0 \n",
- "2020-05-01 32226 4881 1110138 172753 -45.0 -48.0 \n",
- "2020-05-08 26812 3638 1320759 201454 -1615.0 -176.0 \n",
- "2020-05-15 21611 2671 1481545 222871 -520.0 -106.0 \n",
- "2020-05-22 17430 2075 1614993 239208 -589.0 -79.0 \n",
- "2020-05-29 12658 1890 1722647 252717 -883.0 70.0 \n",
- "2020-06-05 9772 1207 1797791 263570 -479.0 -213.0 \n",
- "2020-06-12 7341 937 1855247 271259 -157.0 -54.0 \n",
- "2020-06-19 6939 591 1905027 276164 -186.0 -9.0 \n",
- "2020-06-26 5899 480 1950419 279624 -235.0 32.0 \n",
- "2020-07-03 4485 360 1985555 282616 -127.0 -58.0 \n",
- "2020-07-10 4131 253 2014685 284705 42.0 -10.0 \n",
- "2020-07-17 4266 164 2044059 286128 79.0 -7.0 \n",
- "2020-07-24 4496 107 2074665 287092 1.0 -15.0 \n",
- "2020-07-31 3869 113 2104314 287889 73.0 -9.0 \n",
- "2020-08-07 5833 89 2139062 288530 104.0 18.0 \n",
- "2020-08-14 6793 89 2182748 289102 179.0 0.0 \n",
- "2020-08-21 7353 56 2235156 289635 53.0 -12.0 \n",
- "2020-08-28 8088 74 2287182 290081 340.0 6.0 \n",
- "2020-09-04 10043 50 2350991 290529 213.0 1.0 \n",
- "2020-09-11 17727 81 2449684 290979 1184.0 1.0 \n",
- "2020-09-18 23476 97 2600541 291555 476.0 7.0 \n",
- "2020-09-25 34749 197 2798819 292645 3239.0 19.0 \n",
- "2020-10-02 43815 300 3086093 294313 280.0 19.0 \n",
- "2020-10-09 101637 390 3601915 296856 10626.0 18.0 \n",
- "2020-10-16 111807 701 4351113 300605 1438.0 61.0 \n",
- "2020-10-23 136845 1054 5220544 306852 2260.0 51.0 \n",
- "2020-10-30 154873 1608 6278688 316205 1827.0 91.0 \n",
- "2020-11-06 157857 2165 7386321 329466 1073.0 98.0 \n",
- "2020-11-13 166998 2808 8503996 346708 9332.0 185.0 \n",
- "2020-11-20 163061 2847 9716180 366945 -10555.0 -62.0 \n",
- "2020-11-27 121306 3256 10676794 388295 -5360.0 -3.0 \n",
- "2020-12-04 99572 3082 11417933 411137 -2677.0 -84.0 \n",
- "2020-12-11 92685 2453 10374665 368909 1700.0 119.0 \n",
- "\n",
- " cases_m7 deaths_m7 deaths_g4 deaths_g7 \\\n",
- "dateRep \n",
- "2020-01-03 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
- "2020-01-10 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
- "2020-01-17 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
- "2020-01-24 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
- "2020-01-31 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
- "2020-02-07 2.571429 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
- "2020-02-14 5.142857 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
- "2020-02-21 2.285714 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
- "2020-02-28 3.714286 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
- "2020-03-06 83.571429 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
- "2020-03-13 514.000000 4.428571 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
- "2020-03-20 2699.142857 68.000000 79.504887 24.257733 \n",
- "2020-03-27 7954.571429 384.285714 464.807614 327.583287 \n",
- "2020-04-03 19751.000000 1789.285714 2153.720503 1633.574291 \n",
- "2020-04-10 30920.285714 4599.142857 5088.524097 4416.476344 \n",
- "2020-04-17 31553.857143 6434.000000 6392.991495 6269.311492 \n",
- "2020-04-24 32290.857143 6108.285714 5745.091557 5865.493228 \n",
- "2020-05-01 32810.142857 5291.571429 4695.525928 4919.730986 \n",
- "2020-05-08 30088.714286 4100.142857 3669.542328 3786.175573 \n",
- "2020-05-15 22969.428571 3059.571429 2677.524456 2785.255471 \n",
- "2020-05-22 19064.000000 2333.857143 1947.928544 2022.217125 \n",
- "2020-05-29 15379.142857 1929.857143 1732.798698 1728.444472 \n",
- "2020-06-05 10734.857143 1550.428571 1257.247277 1322.817820 \n",
- "2020-06-12 8208.000000 1098.428571 916.682753 940.775215 \n",
- "2020-06-19 7111.428571 700.714286 563.512973 593.415144 \n",
- "2020-06-26 6484.571429 494.285714 416.381335 421.990143 \n",
- "2020-07-03 5019.428571 427.428571 376.617800 366.017611 \n",
- "2020-07-10 4161.428571 298.428571 248.675598 258.540406 \n",
- "2020-07-17 4196.285714 203.285714 166.283290 171.181184 \n",
- "2020-07-24 4372.285714 137.714286 118.278798 120.912224 \n",
- "2020-07-31 4235.571429 113.857143 79.927160 82.049806 \n",
- "2020-08-07 4964.000000 91.571429 26.017737 9.273227 \n",
- "2020-08-14 6240.857143 81.714286 77.224731 64.479846 \n",
- "2020-08-21 7486.857143 76.142857 57.415692 61.994254 \n",
- "2020-08-28 7432.285714 63.714286 54.517208 49.287140 \n",
- "2020-09-04 9115.571429 64.000000 45.709346 49.612299 \n",
- "2020-09-11 14099.000000 64.285714 55.103648 46.741257 \n",
- "2020-09-18 21551.000000 82.285714 76.375361 65.232921 \n",
- "2020-09-25 28325.428571 155.714286 161.214801 143.205548 \n",
- "2020-10-02 41039.142857 238.285714 230.060916 211.544534 \n",
- "2020-10-09 73688.857143 363.285714 349.704548 322.563025 \n",
- "2020-10-16 107028.285714 535.571429 577.496284 499.621044 \n",
- "2020-10-23 124204.428571 892.428571 903.798899 829.790586 \n",
- "2020-10-30 151163.428571 1336.142857 1363.375912 1244.302740 \n",
- "2020-11-06 158233.285714 1894.428571 1869.072858 1756.119532 \n",
- "2020-11-13 159667.857143 2463.142857 2401.361299 2249.701288 \n",
- "2020-11-20 173169.142857 2891.000000 2708.892132 2619.031072 \n",
- "2020-11-27 137230.571429 3050.000000 2934.861534 2753.026893 \n",
- "2020-12-04 105877.000000 3263.142857 2966.168647 2988.661808 \n",
- "2020-12-11 90123.714286 2555.000000 2356.150688 2352.938908 \n",
- "\n",
- " doubling_time doubling_time_7 \n",
- "dateRep \n",
- "2020-01-03 0.000000e+00 0.000000e+00 \n",
- "2020-01-10 0.000000e+00 0.000000e+00 \n",
- "2020-01-17 0.000000e+00 0.000000e+00 \n",
- "2020-01-24 0.000000e+00 0.000000e+00 \n",
- "2020-01-31 0.000000e+00 0.000000e+00 \n",
- "2020-02-07 0.000000e+00 0.000000e+00 \n",
- "2020-02-14 0.000000e+00 0.000000e+00 \n",
- "2020-02-21 0.000000e+00 0.000000e+00 \n",
- "2020-02-28 0.000000e+00 0.000000e+00 \n",
- "2020-03-06 0.000000e+00 0.000000e+00 \n",
- "2020-03-13 inf inf \n",
- "2020-03-20 inf inf \n",
- "2020-03-27 3.577040e+01 4.797282e+01 \n",
- "2020-04-03 3.702651e+01 4.931862e+01 \n",
- "2020-04-10 4.749914e+01 5.457682e+01 \n",
- "2020-04-17 7.441501e+01 7.427834e+01 \n",
- "2020-04-24 1.196415e+02 1.151654e+02 \n",
- "2020-05-01 1.890979e+02 1.744465e+02 \n",
- "2020-05-08 2.839767e+02 2.627153e+02 \n",
- "2020-05-15 4.329725e+02 3.948088e+02 \n",
- "2020-05-22 6.541432e+02 5.836862e+02 \n",
- "2020-05-29 7.391467e+02 7.173609e+02 \n",
- "2020-06-05 1.135760e+03 9.930720e+02 \n",
- "2020-06-12 1.593893e+03 1.416581e+03 \n",
- "2020-06-19 2.647618e+03 2.299498e+03 \n",
- "2020-06-26 3.585584e+03 3.235524e+03 \n",
- "2020-07-03 4.038218e+03 3.764706e+03 \n",
- "2020-07-10 6.117937e+03 5.408341e+03 \n",
- "2020-07-17 9.430925e+03 8.243797e+03 \n",
- "2020-07-24 1.271636e+04 1.165442e+04 \n",
- "2020-07-31 inf inf \n",
- "2020-08-07 inf inf \n",
- "2020-08-14 2.011138e+04 2.245319e+04 \n",
- "2020-08-21 2.822494e+04 2.333077e+04 \n",
- "2020-08-28 2.710076e+04 2.908195e+04 \n",
- "2020-09-04 4.258905e+04 3.069208e+04 \n",
- "2020-09-11 2.723477e+04 3.156956e+04 \n",
- "2020-09-18 2.020206e+04 2.224637e+04 \n",
- "2020-09-25 8.901465e+03 1.026870e+04 \n",
- "2020-10-02 6.473932e+03 6.827996e+03 \n",
- "2020-10-09 4.291457e+03 4.498907e+03 \n",
- "2020-10-16 2.571463e+03 3.038155e+03 \n",
- "2020-10-23 1.681682e+03 1.816643e+03 \n",
- "2020-10-30 1.144987e+03 1.253041e+03 \n",
- "2020-11-06 8.748452e+02 9.175873e+02 \n",
- "2020-11-13 7.273019e+02 7.528714e+02 \n",
- "2020-11-20 6.907600e+02 6.823344e+02 \n",
- "2020-11-27 6.765205e+02 6.882603e+02 \n",
- "2020-12-04 7.059253e+02 6.717400e+02 \n",
- "2020-12-11 6.829136e+02 6.544146e+02 "
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 68,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "data_by_week = data_by_day.resample(pd.offsets.Week(weekday=4)).sum()\n",
- "data_by_week"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 69,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/html": [
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- " <thead>\n",
- " <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
- " <th></th>\n",
- " <th>total_2020</th>\n",
- " <th>previous_mean</th>\n",
- " <th>covid_deaths</th>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " </thead>\n",
- " <tbody>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-03-20</td>\n",
- " <td>12112.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12007.4</td>\n",
- " <td>153</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-03-27</td>\n",
- " <td>12507.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11549.6</td>\n",
- " <td>722</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-03</td>\n",
- " <td>18565.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11681.4</td>\n",
- " <td>2898</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-10</td>\n",
- " <td>20929.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11919.4</td>\n",
- " <td>5909</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-17</td>\n",
- " <td>24691.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11850.6</td>\n",
- " <td>6338</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-24</td>\n",
- " <td>24303.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11844.4</td>\n",
- " <td>5773</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-01</td>\n",
- " <td>20059.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11318.4</td>\n",
- " <td>4881</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-08</td>\n",
- " <td>14428.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10887.2</td>\n",
- " <td>3638</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-15</td>\n",
- " <td>16390.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11547.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2671</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-22</td>\n",
- " <td>13839.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11281.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2075</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-29</td>\n",
- " <td>11265.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9448.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1890</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-05</td>\n",
- " <td>12106.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11325.6</td>\n",
- " <td>1207</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-12</td>\n",
- " <td>11302.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10703.6</td>\n",
- " <td>937</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-19</td>\n",
- " <td>10694.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10698.2</td>\n",
- " <td>591</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-26</td>\n",
- " <td>10282.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10605.6</td>\n",
- " <td>480</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-03</td>\n",
- " <td>10412.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10483.0</td>\n",
- " <td>360</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-10</td>\n",
- " <td>9941.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10509.4</td>\n",
- " <td>253</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-17</td>\n",
- " <td>10096.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10360.6</td>\n",
- " <td>164</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-24</td>\n",
- " <td>10159.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10311.6</td>\n",
- " <td>107</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-31</td>\n",
- " <td>10262.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10307.4</td>\n",
- " <td>113</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-07</td>\n",
- " <td>10236.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10363.6</td>\n",
- " <td>89</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-14</td>\n",
- " <td>10592.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10345.8</td>\n",
- " <td>89</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-21</td>\n",
- " <td>10990.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10433.4</td>\n",
- " <td>56</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-28</td>\n",
- " <td>10364.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9472.2</td>\n",
- " <td>74</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-04</td>\n",
- " <td>9023.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10430.4</td>\n",
- " <td>50</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-11</td>\n",
- " <td>11176.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10610.8</td>\n",
- " <td>81</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-18</td>\n",
- " <td>10797.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10545.8</td>\n",
- " <td>97</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-25</td>\n",
- " <td>10890.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10709.6</td>\n",
- " <td>197</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-02</td>\n",
- " <td>11468.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10890.8</td>\n",
- " <td>300</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-09</td>\n",
- " <td>11373.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11186.4</td>\n",
- " <td>390</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-16</td>\n",
- " <td>11943.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11224.8</td>\n",
- " <td>701</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-23</td>\n",
- " <td>12317.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11093.2</td>\n",
- " <td>1054</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-30</td>\n",
- " <td>12517.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11257.6</td>\n",
- " <td>1608</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-06</td>\n",
- " <td>13448.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11729.4</td>\n",
- " <td>2165</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-13</td>\n",
- " <td>13798.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11803.6</td>\n",
- " <td>2808</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-20</td>\n",
- " <td>14291.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11821.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2847</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-27</td>\n",
- " <td>14132.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11802.0</td>\n",
- " <td>3256</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " </tbody>\n",
- "</table>\n",
- "</div>"
- ],
- "text/plain": [
- " total_2020 previous_mean covid_deaths\n",
- "2020-03-20 12112.0 12007.4 153\n",
- "2020-03-27 12507.0 11549.6 722\n",
- "2020-04-03 18565.0 11681.4 2898\n",
- "2020-04-10 20929.0 11919.4 5909\n",
- "2020-04-17 24691.0 11850.6 6338\n",
- "2020-04-24 24303.0 11844.4 5773\n",
- "2020-05-01 20059.0 11318.4 4881\n",
- "2020-05-08 14428.0 10887.2 3638\n",
- "2020-05-15 16390.0 11547.0 2671\n",
- "2020-05-22 13839.0 11281.0 2075\n",
- "2020-05-29 11265.0 9448.0 1890\n",
- "2020-06-05 12106.0 11325.6 1207\n",
- "2020-06-12 11302.0 10703.6 937\n",
- "2020-06-19 10694.0 10698.2 591\n",
- "2020-06-26 10282.0 10605.6 480\n",
- "2020-07-03 10412.0 10483.0 360\n",
- "2020-07-10 9941.0 10509.4 253\n",
- "2020-07-17 10096.0 10360.6 164\n",
- "2020-07-24 10159.0 10311.6 107\n",
- "2020-07-31 10262.0 10307.4 113\n",
- "2020-08-07 10236.0 10363.6 89\n",
- "2020-08-14 10592.0 10345.8 89\n",
- "2020-08-21 10990.0 10433.4 56\n",
- "2020-08-28 10364.0 9472.2 74\n",
- "2020-09-04 9023.0 10430.4 50\n",
- "2020-09-11 11176.0 10610.8 81\n",
- "2020-09-18 10797.0 10545.8 97\n",
- "2020-09-25 10890.0 10709.6 197\n",
- "2020-10-02 11468.0 10890.8 300\n",
- "2020-10-09 11373.0 11186.4 390\n",
- "2020-10-16 11943.0 11224.8 701\n",
- "2020-10-23 12317.0 11093.2 1054\n",
- "2020-10-30 12517.0 11257.6 1608\n",
- "2020-11-06 13448.0 11729.4 2165\n",
- "2020-11-13 13798.0 11803.6 2808\n",
- "2020-11-20 14291.0 11821.0 2847\n",
- "2020-11-27 14132.0 11802.0 3256"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 69,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "excess_deaths = deaths_by_week.loc['2020-03-20':, ['total_2020', 'previous_mean']].merge(\n",
- " data_by_week['deaths'], left_index=True, right_index=True)\n",
- "excess_deaths.rename(columns={'deaths': 'covid_deaths'}, inplace=True)\n",
- "excess_deaths.dropna(inplace=True)\n",
- "excess_deaths"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "source": [
- "## Correction for the dip in deaths being in week 36, not the usual week 35"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 70,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/html": [
- "<div>\n",
- "<style scoped>\n",
- " .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
- " vertical-align: middle;\n",
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- "\n",
- " .dataframe thead th {\n",
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- " }\n",
- "</style>\n",
- "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
- " <thead>\n",
- " <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
- " <th></th>\n",
- " <th>total_2020</th>\n",
- " <th>previous_mean</th>\n",
- " <th>covid_deaths</th>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " </thead>\n",
- " <tbody>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-14</td>\n",
- " <td>10592.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10345.8</td>\n",
- " <td>89</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-21</td>\n",
- " <td>10990.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10433.4</td>\n",
- " <td>56</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-28</td>\n",
- " <td>9023.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9472.2</td>\n",
- " <td>74</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-04</td>\n",
- " <td>10364.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10430.4</td>\n",
- " <td>50</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-11</td>\n",
- " <td>11176.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10610.8</td>\n",
- " <td>81</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-18</td>\n",
- " <td>10797.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10545.8</td>\n",
- " <td>97</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-25</td>\n",
- " <td>10890.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10709.6</td>\n",
- " <td>197</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-02</td>\n",
- " <td>11468.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10890.8</td>\n",
- " <td>300</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-09</td>\n",
- " <td>11373.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11186.4</td>\n",
- " <td>390</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-16</td>\n",
- " <td>11943.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11224.8</td>\n",
- " <td>701</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-23</td>\n",
- " <td>12317.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11093.2</td>\n",
- " <td>1054</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-30</td>\n",
- " <td>12517.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11257.6</td>\n",
- " <td>1608</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-06</td>\n",
- " <td>13448.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11729.4</td>\n",
- " <td>2165</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-13</td>\n",
- " <td>13798.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11803.6</td>\n",
- " <td>2808</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-20</td>\n",
- " <td>14291.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11821.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2847</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-27</td>\n",
- " <td>14132.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11802.0</td>\n",
- " <td>3256</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " </tbody>\n",
- "</table>\n",
- "</div>"
- ],
- "text/plain": [
- " total_2020 previous_mean covid_deaths\n",
- "2020-08-14 10592.0 10345.8 89\n",
- "2020-08-21 10990.0 10433.4 56\n",
- "2020-08-28 9023.0 9472.2 74\n",
- "2020-09-04 10364.0 10430.4 50\n",
- "2020-09-11 11176.0 10610.8 81\n",
- "2020-09-18 10797.0 10545.8 97\n",
- "2020-09-25 10890.0 10709.6 197\n",
- "2020-10-02 11468.0 10890.8 300\n",
- "2020-10-09 11373.0 11186.4 390\n",
- "2020-10-16 11943.0 11224.8 701\n",
- "2020-10-23 12317.0 11093.2 1054\n",
- "2020-10-30 12517.0 11257.6 1608\n",
- "2020-11-06 13448.0 11729.4 2165\n",
- "2020-11-13 13798.0 11803.6 2808\n",
- "2020-11-20 14291.0 11821.0 2847\n",
- "2020-11-27 14132.0 11802.0 3256"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 70,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "temp1 = excess_deaths.loc['2020-08-28'].total_2020\n",
- "temp2 = excess_deaths.loc['2020-09-04'].total_2020\n",
- "excess_deaths.loc['2020-08-28', 'total_2020'] = temp2\n",
- "excess_deaths.loc['2020-09-04', 'total_2020'] = temp1\n",
- "excess_deaths.loc['2020-08-14':]"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 71,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/plain": [
- "(10364.0, 9023.0)"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 71,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "temp1, temp2"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 72,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/html": [
- "<div>\n",
- "<style scoped>\n",
- " .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
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- " }\n",
- "</style>\n",
- "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
- " <thead>\n",
- " <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
- " <th></th>\n",
- " <th>total_2020</th>\n",
- " <th>previous_mean</th>\n",
- " <th>covid_deaths</th>\n",
- " <th>excess</th>\n",
- " <th>attributable</th>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " </thead>\n",
- " <tbody>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-03-20</td>\n",
- " <td>12112.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12007.4</td>\n",
- " <td>153</td>\n",
- " <td>104.6</td>\n",
- " <td>153.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-03-27</td>\n",
- " <td>12507.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11549.6</td>\n",
- " <td>722</td>\n",
- " <td>957.4</td>\n",
- " <td>957.4</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-03</td>\n",
- " <td>18565.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11681.4</td>\n",
- " <td>2898</td>\n",
- " <td>6883.6</td>\n",
- " <td>6883.6</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-10</td>\n",
- " <td>20929.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11919.4</td>\n",
- " <td>5909</td>\n",
- " <td>9009.6</td>\n",
- " <td>9009.6</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-17</td>\n",
- " <td>24691.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11850.6</td>\n",
- " <td>6338</td>\n",
- " <td>12840.4</td>\n",
- " <td>12840.4</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-24</td>\n",
- " <td>24303.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11844.4</td>\n",
- " <td>5773</td>\n",
- " <td>12458.6</td>\n",
- " <td>12458.6</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-01</td>\n",
- " <td>20059.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11318.4</td>\n",
- " <td>4881</td>\n",
- " <td>8740.6</td>\n",
- " <td>8740.6</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-08</td>\n",
- " <td>14428.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10887.2</td>\n",
- " <td>3638</td>\n",
- " <td>3540.8</td>\n",
- " <td>3638.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-15</td>\n",
- " <td>16390.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11547.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2671</td>\n",
- " <td>4843.0</td>\n",
- " <td>4843.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-22</td>\n",
- " <td>13839.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11281.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2075</td>\n",
- " <td>2558.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2558.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-29</td>\n",
- " <td>11265.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9448.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1890</td>\n",
- " <td>1817.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1890.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-05</td>\n",
- " <td>12106.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11325.6</td>\n",
- " <td>1207</td>\n",
- " <td>780.4</td>\n",
- " <td>1207.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-12</td>\n",
- " <td>11302.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10703.6</td>\n",
- " <td>937</td>\n",
- " <td>598.4</td>\n",
- " <td>937.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-19</td>\n",
- " <td>10694.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10698.2</td>\n",
- " <td>591</td>\n",
- " <td>-4.2</td>\n",
- " <td>591.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-26</td>\n",
- " <td>10282.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10605.6</td>\n",
- " <td>480</td>\n",
- " <td>-323.6</td>\n",
- " <td>480.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-03</td>\n",
- " <td>10412.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10483.0</td>\n",
- " <td>360</td>\n",
- " <td>-71.0</td>\n",
- " <td>360.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-10</td>\n",
- " <td>9941.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10509.4</td>\n",
- " <td>253</td>\n",
- " <td>-568.4</td>\n",
- " <td>253.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-17</td>\n",
- " <td>10096.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10360.6</td>\n",
- " <td>164</td>\n",
- " <td>-264.6</td>\n",
- " <td>164.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-24</td>\n",
- " <td>10159.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10311.6</td>\n",
- " <td>107</td>\n",
- " <td>-152.6</td>\n",
- " <td>107.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-31</td>\n",
- " <td>10262.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10307.4</td>\n",
- " <td>113</td>\n",
- " <td>-45.4</td>\n",
- " <td>113.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-07</td>\n",
- " <td>10236.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10363.6</td>\n",
- " <td>89</td>\n",
- " <td>-127.6</td>\n",
- " <td>89.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-14</td>\n",
- " <td>10592.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10345.8</td>\n",
- " <td>89</td>\n",
- " <td>246.2</td>\n",
- " <td>246.2</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-21</td>\n",
- " <td>10990.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10433.4</td>\n",
- " <td>56</td>\n",
- " <td>556.6</td>\n",
- " <td>556.6</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-28</td>\n",
- " <td>9023.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9472.2</td>\n",
- " <td>74</td>\n",
- " <td>-449.2</td>\n",
- " <td>74.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-04</td>\n",
- " <td>10364.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10430.4</td>\n",
- " <td>50</td>\n",
- " <td>-66.4</td>\n",
- " <td>50.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-11</td>\n",
- " <td>11176.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10610.8</td>\n",
- " <td>81</td>\n",
- " <td>565.2</td>\n",
- " <td>565.2</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-18</td>\n",
- " <td>10797.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10545.8</td>\n",
- " <td>97</td>\n",
- " <td>251.2</td>\n",
- " <td>251.2</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-25</td>\n",
- " <td>10890.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10709.6</td>\n",
- " <td>197</td>\n",
- " <td>180.4</td>\n",
- " <td>197.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-02</td>\n",
- " <td>11468.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10890.8</td>\n",
- " <td>300</td>\n",
- " <td>577.2</td>\n",
- " <td>577.2</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-09</td>\n",
- " <td>11373.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11186.4</td>\n",
- " <td>390</td>\n",
- " <td>186.6</td>\n",
- " <td>390.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-16</td>\n",
- " <td>11943.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11224.8</td>\n",
- " <td>701</td>\n",
- " <td>718.2</td>\n",
- " <td>718.2</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-23</td>\n",
- " <td>12317.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11093.2</td>\n",
- " <td>1054</td>\n",
- " <td>1223.8</td>\n",
- " <td>1223.8</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-30</td>\n",
- " <td>12517.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11257.6</td>\n",
- " <td>1608</td>\n",
- " <td>1259.4</td>\n",
- " <td>1608.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-06</td>\n",
- " <td>13448.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11729.4</td>\n",
- " <td>2165</td>\n",
- " <td>1718.6</td>\n",
- " <td>2165.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-13</td>\n",
- " <td>13798.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11803.6</td>\n",
- " <td>2808</td>\n",
- " <td>1994.4</td>\n",
- " <td>2808.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-20</td>\n",
- " <td>14291.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11821.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2847</td>\n",
- " <td>2470.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2847.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-27</td>\n",
- " <td>14132.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11802.0</td>\n",
- " <td>3256</td>\n",
- " <td>2330.0</td>\n",
- " <td>3256.0</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " </tbody>\n",
- "</table>\n",
- "</div>"
- ],
- "text/plain": [
- " total_2020 previous_mean covid_deaths excess attributable\n",
- "2020-03-20 12112.0 12007.4 153 104.6 153.0\n",
- "2020-03-27 12507.0 11549.6 722 957.4 957.4\n",
- "2020-04-03 18565.0 11681.4 2898 6883.6 6883.6\n",
- "2020-04-10 20929.0 11919.4 5909 9009.6 9009.6\n",
- "2020-04-17 24691.0 11850.6 6338 12840.4 12840.4\n",
- "2020-04-24 24303.0 11844.4 5773 12458.6 12458.6\n",
- "2020-05-01 20059.0 11318.4 4881 8740.6 8740.6\n",
- "2020-05-08 14428.0 10887.2 3638 3540.8 3638.0\n",
- "2020-05-15 16390.0 11547.0 2671 4843.0 4843.0\n",
- "2020-05-22 13839.0 11281.0 2075 2558.0 2558.0\n",
- "2020-05-29 11265.0 9448.0 1890 1817.0 1890.0\n",
- "2020-06-05 12106.0 11325.6 1207 780.4 1207.0\n",
- "2020-06-12 11302.0 10703.6 937 598.4 937.0\n",
- "2020-06-19 10694.0 10698.2 591 -4.2 591.0\n",
- "2020-06-26 10282.0 10605.6 480 -323.6 480.0\n",
- "2020-07-03 10412.0 10483.0 360 -71.0 360.0\n",
- "2020-07-10 9941.0 10509.4 253 -568.4 253.0\n",
- "2020-07-17 10096.0 10360.6 164 -264.6 164.0\n",
- "2020-07-24 10159.0 10311.6 107 -152.6 107.0\n",
- "2020-07-31 10262.0 10307.4 113 -45.4 113.0\n",
- "2020-08-07 10236.0 10363.6 89 -127.6 89.0\n",
- "2020-08-14 10592.0 10345.8 89 246.2 246.2\n",
- "2020-08-21 10990.0 10433.4 56 556.6 556.6\n",
- "2020-08-28 9023.0 9472.2 74 -449.2 74.0\n",
- "2020-09-04 10364.0 10430.4 50 -66.4 50.0\n",
- "2020-09-11 11176.0 10610.8 81 565.2 565.2\n",
- "2020-09-18 10797.0 10545.8 97 251.2 251.2\n",
- "2020-09-25 10890.0 10709.6 197 180.4 197.0\n",
- "2020-10-02 11468.0 10890.8 300 577.2 577.2\n",
- "2020-10-09 11373.0 11186.4 390 186.6 390.0\n",
- "2020-10-16 11943.0 11224.8 701 718.2 718.2\n",
- "2020-10-23 12317.0 11093.2 1054 1223.8 1223.8\n",
- "2020-10-30 12517.0 11257.6 1608 1259.4 1608.0\n",
- "2020-11-06 13448.0 11729.4 2165 1718.6 2165.0\n",
- "2020-11-13 13798.0 11803.6 2808 1994.4 2808.0\n",
- "2020-11-20 14291.0 11821.0 2847 2470.0 2847.0\n",
- "2020-11-27 14132.0 11802.0 3256 2330.0 3256.0"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 72,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "excess_deaths['excess'] = excess_deaths.total_2020 - excess_deaths.previous_mean\n",
- "excess_deaths['attributable'] = excess_deaths[['covid_deaths', 'excess']].max(axis=1)\n",
- "excess_deaths"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 73,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/plain": [
- "<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x7f41c44a9610>"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 73,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- },
- {
- "data": {
- "image/png": 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\n",
- "text/plain": [
- "<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"
- ]
- },
- "metadata": {
- "needs_background": "light"
- },
- "output_type": "display_data"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "excess_deaths[['covid_deaths', 'excess']].plot()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 74,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/plain": [
- "1.3562695100136786"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 74,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "excess_deaths.excess.sum() / excess_deaths.covid_deaths.sum()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 75,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/html": [
- "<div>\n",
- "<style scoped>\n",
- " .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
- " vertical-align: middle;\n",
- " }\n",
- "\n",
- " .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
- " vertical-align: top;\n",
- " }\n",
- "\n",
- " .dataframe thead th {\n",
- " text-align: right;\n",
- " }\n",
- "</style>\n",
- "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
- " <thead>\n",
- " <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
- " <th></th>\n",
- " <th>total_2020</th>\n",
- " <th>previous_mean</th>\n",
- " <th>covid_deaths</th>\n",
- " <th>excess</th>\n",
- " <th>attributable</th>\n",
- " <th>accounted_fraction</th>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " </thead>\n",
- " <tbody>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-03-20</td>\n",
- " <td>12112.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12007.4</td>\n",
- " <td>153</td>\n",
- " <td>104.6</td>\n",
- " <td>153.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.462715</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-03-27</td>\n",
- " <td>12507.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11549.6</td>\n",
- " <td>722</td>\n",
- " <td>957.4</td>\n",
- " <td>957.4</td>\n",
- " <td>0.754126</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-03</td>\n",
- " <td>18565.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11681.4</td>\n",
- " <td>2898</td>\n",
- " <td>6883.6</td>\n",
- " <td>6883.6</td>\n",
- " <td>0.421001</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-10</td>\n",
- " <td>20929.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11919.4</td>\n",
- " <td>5909</td>\n",
- " <td>9009.6</td>\n",
- " <td>9009.6</td>\n",
- " <td>0.655856</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-17</td>\n",
- " <td>24691.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11850.6</td>\n",
- " <td>6338</td>\n",
- " <td>12840.4</td>\n",
- " <td>12840.4</td>\n",
- " <td>0.493598</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-24</td>\n",
- " <td>24303.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11844.4</td>\n",
- " <td>5773</td>\n",
- " <td>12458.6</td>\n",
- " <td>12458.6</td>\n",
- " <td>0.463375</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-01</td>\n",
- " <td>20059.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11318.4</td>\n",
- " <td>4881</td>\n",
- " <td>8740.6</td>\n",
- " <td>8740.6</td>\n",
- " <td>0.558428</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-08</td>\n",
- " <td>14428.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10887.2</td>\n",
- " <td>3638</td>\n",
- " <td>3540.8</td>\n",
- " <td>3638.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.027451</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-15</td>\n",
- " <td>16390.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11547.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2671</td>\n",
- " <td>4843.0</td>\n",
- " <td>4843.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.551518</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-22</td>\n",
- " <td>13839.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11281.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2075</td>\n",
- " <td>2558.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2558.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.811181</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-29</td>\n",
- " <td>11265.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9448.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1890</td>\n",
- " <td>1817.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1890.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.040176</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-05</td>\n",
- " <td>12106.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11325.6</td>\n",
- " <td>1207</td>\n",
- " <td>780.4</td>\n",
- " <td>1207.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.546643</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-12</td>\n",
- " <td>11302.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10703.6</td>\n",
- " <td>937</td>\n",
- " <td>598.4</td>\n",
- " <td>937.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.565842</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-19</td>\n",
- " <td>10694.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10698.2</td>\n",
- " <td>591</td>\n",
- " <td>-4.2</td>\n",
- " <td>591.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-140.714286</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-26</td>\n",
- " <td>10282.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10605.6</td>\n",
- " <td>480</td>\n",
- " <td>-323.6</td>\n",
- " <td>480.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-1.483313</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-03</td>\n",
- " <td>10412.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10483.0</td>\n",
- " <td>360</td>\n",
- " <td>-71.0</td>\n",
- " <td>360.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-5.070423</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-10</td>\n",
- " <td>9941.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10509.4</td>\n",
- " <td>253</td>\n",
- " <td>-568.4</td>\n",
- " <td>253.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.445109</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-17</td>\n",
- " <td>10096.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10360.6</td>\n",
- " <td>164</td>\n",
- " <td>-264.6</td>\n",
- " <td>164.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.619803</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-24</td>\n",
- " <td>10159.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10311.6</td>\n",
- " <td>107</td>\n",
- " <td>-152.6</td>\n",
- " <td>107.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.701180</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-31</td>\n",
- " <td>10262.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10307.4</td>\n",
- " <td>113</td>\n",
- " <td>-45.4</td>\n",
- " <td>113.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-2.488987</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-07</td>\n",
- " <td>10236.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10363.6</td>\n",
- " <td>89</td>\n",
- " <td>-127.6</td>\n",
- " <td>89.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.697492</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-14</td>\n",
- " <td>10592.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10345.8</td>\n",
- " <td>89</td>\n",
- " <td>246.2</td>\n",
- " <td>246.2</td>\n",
- " <td>0.361495</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-21</td>\n",
- " <td>10990.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10433.4</td>\n",
- " <td>56</td>\n",
- " <td>556.6</td>\n",
- " <td>556.6</td>\n",
- " <td>0.100611</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-28</td>\n",
- " <td>9023.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9472.2</td>\n",
- " <td>74</td>\n",
- " <td>-449.2</td>\n",
- " <td>74.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.164737</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-04</td>\n",
- " <td>10364.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10430.4</td>\n",
- " <td>50</td>\n",
- " <td>-66.4</td>\n",
- " <td>50.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.753012</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-11</td>\n",
- " <td>11176.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10610.8</td>\n",
- " <td>81</td>\n",
- " <td>565.2</td>\n",
- " <td>565.2</td>\n",
- " <td>0.143312</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-18</td>\n",
- " <td>10797.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10545.8</td>\n",
- " <td>97</td>\n",
- " <td>251.2</td>\n",
- " <td>251.2</td>\n",
- " <td>0.386146</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-25</td>\n",
- " <td>10890.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10709.6</td>\n",
- " <td>197</td>\n",
- " <td>180.4</td>\n",
- " <td>197.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.092018</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-02</td>\n",
- " <td>11468.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10890.8</td>\n",
- " <td>300</td>\n",
- " <td>577.2</td>\n",
- " <td>577.2</td>\n",
- " <td>0.519751</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-09</td>\n",
- " <td>11373.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11186.4</td>\n",
- " <td>390</td>\n",
- " <td>186.6</td>\n",
- " <td>390.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2.090032</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-16</td>\n",
- " <td>11943.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11224.8</td>\n",
- " <td>701</td>\n",
- " <td>718.2</td>\n",
- " <td>718.2</td>\n",
- " <td>0.976051</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-23</td>\n",
- " <td>12317.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11093.2</td>\n",
- " <td>1054</td>\n",
- " <td>1223.8</td>\n",
- " <td>1223.8</td>\n",
- " <td>0.861252</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-30</td>\n",
- " <td>12517.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11257.6</td>\n",
- " <td>1608</td>\n",
- " <td>1259.4</td>\n",
- " <td>1608.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.276798</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-06</td>\n",
- " <td>13448.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11729.4</td>\n",
- " <td>2165</td>\n",
- " <td>1718.6</td>\n",
- " <td>2165.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.259746</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-13</td>\n",
- " <td>13798.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11803.6</td>\n",
- " <td>2808</td>\n",
- " <td>1994.4</td>\n",
- " <td>2808.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.407942</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-20</td>\n",
- " <td>14291.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11821.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2847</td>\n",
- " <td>2470.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2847.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.152632</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-27</td>\n",
- " <td>14132.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11802.0</td>\n",
- " <td>3256</td>\n",
- " <td>2330.0</td>\n",
- " <td>3256.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.397425</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " </tbody>\n",
- "</table>\n",
- "</div>"
- ],
- "text/plain": [
- " total_2020 previous_mean covid_deaths excess attributable \\\n",
- "2020-03-20 12112.0 12007.4 153 104.6 153.0 \n",
- "2020-03-27 12507.0 11549.6 722 957.4 957.4 \n",
- "2020-04-03 18565.0 11681.4 2898 6883.6 6883.6 \n",
- "2020-04-10 20929.0 11919.4 5909 9009.6 9009.6 \n",
- "2020-04-17 24691.0 11850.6 6338 12840.4 12840.4 \n",
- "2020-04-24 24303.0 11844.4 5773 12458.6 12458.6 \n",
- "2020-05-01 20059.0 11318.4 4881 8740.6 8740.6 \n",
- "2020-05-08 14428.0 10887.2 3638 3540.8 3638.0 \n",
- "2020-05-15 16390.0 11547.0 2671 4843.0 4843.0 \n",
- "2020-05-22 13839.0 11281.0 2075 2558.0 2558.0 \n",
- "2020-05-29 11265.0 9448.0 1890 1817.0 1890.0 \n",
- "2020-06-05 12106.0 11325.6 1207 780.4 1207.0 \n",
- "2020-06-12 11302.0 10703.6 937 598.4 937.0 \n",
- "2020-06-19 10694.0 10698.2 591 -4.2 591.0 \n",
- "2020-06-26 10282.0 10605.6 480 -323.6 480.0 \n",
- "2020-07-03 10412.0 10483.0 360 -71.0 360.0 \n",
- "2020-07-10 9941.0 10509.4 253 -568.4 253.0 \n",
- "2020-07-17 10096.0 10360.6 164 -264.6 164.0 \n",
- "2020-07-24 10159.0 10311.6 107 -152.6 107.0 \n",
- "2020-07-31 10262.0 10307.4 113 -45.4 113.0 \n",
- "2020-08-07 10236.0 10363.6 89 -127.6 89.0 \n",
- "2020-08-14 10592.0 10345.8 89 246.2 246.2 \n",
- "2020-08-21 10990.0 10433.4 56 556.6 556.6 \n",
- "2020-08-28 9023.0 9472.2 74 -449.2 74.0 \n",
- "2020-09-04 10364.0 10430.4 50 -66.4 50.0 \n",
- "2020-09-11 11176.0 10610.8 81 565.2 565.2 \n",
- "2020-09-18 10797.0 10545.8 97 251.2 251.2 \n",
- "2020-09-25 10890.0 10709.6 197 180.4 197.0 \n",
- "2020-10-02 11468.0 10890.8 300 577.2 577.2 \n",
- "2020-10-09 11373.0 11186.4 390 186.6 390.0 \n",
- "2020-10-16 11943.0 11224.8 701 718.2 718.2 \n",
- "2020-10-23 12317.0 11093.2 1054 1223.8 1223.8 \n",
- "2020-10-30 12517.0 11257.6 1608 1259.4 1608.0 \n",
- "2020-11-06 13448.0 11729.4 2165 1718.6 2165.0 \n",
- "2020-11-13 13798.0 11803.6 2808 1994.4 2808.0 \n",
- "2020-11-20 14291.0 11821.0 2847 2470.0 2847.0 \n",
- "2020-11-27 14132.0 11802.0 3256 2330.0 3256.0 \n",
- "\n",
- " accounted_fraction \n",
- "2020-03-20 1.462715 \n",
- "2020-03-27 0.754126 \n",
- "2020-04-03 0.421001 \n",
- "2020-04-10 0.655856 \n",
- "2020-04-17 0.493598 \n",
- "2020-04-24 0.463375 \n",
- "2020-05-01 0.558428 \n",
- "2020-05-08 1.027451 \n",
- "2020-05-15 0.551518 \n",
- "2020-05-22 0.811181 \n",
- "2020-05-29 1.040176 \n",
- "2020-06-05 1.546643 \n",
- "2020-06-12 1.565842 \n",
- "2020-06-19 -140.714286 \n",
- "2020-06-26 -1.483313 \n",
- "2020-07-03 -5.070423 \n",
- "2020-07-10 -0.445109 \n",
- "2020-07-17 -0.619803 \n",
- "2020-07-24 -0.701180 \n",
- "2020-07-31 -2.488987 \n",
- "2020-08-07 -0.697492 \n",
- "2020-08-14 0.361495 \n",
- "2020-08-21 0.100611 \n",
- "2020-08-28 -0.164737 \n",
- "2020-09-04 -0.753012 \n",
- "2020-09-11 0.143312 \n",
- "2020-09-18 0.386146 \n",
- "2020-09-25 1.092018 \n",
- "2020-10-02 0.519751 \n",
- "2020-10-09 2.090032 \n",
- "2020-10-16 0.976051 \n",
- "2020-10-23 0.861252 \n",
- "2020-10-30 1.276798 \n",
- "2020-11-06 1.259746 \n",
- "2020-11-13 1.407942 \n",
- "2020-11-20 1.152632 \n",
- "2020-11-27 1.397425 "
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 75,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "excess_deaths['accounted_fraction'] = excess_deaths.covid_deaths / excess_deaths.excess\n",
- "excess_deaths"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 76,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/html": [
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- "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
- " <thead>\n",
- " <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
- " <th></th>\n",
- " <th>total_2020</th>\n",
- " <th>previous_mean</th>\n",
- " <th>covid_deaths</th>\n",
- " <th>excess</th>\n",
- " <th>attributable</th>\n",
- " <th>accounted_fraction</th>\n",
- " <th>covid_deaths_m2</th>\n",
- " <th>excess_m2</th>\n",
- " <th>accounted_fraction_m2</th>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " </thead>\n",
- " <tbody>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-03-20</td>\n",
- " <td>12112.0</td>\n",
- " <td>12007.4</td>\n",
- " <td>153</td>\n",
- " <td>104.6</td>\n",
- " <td>153.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.462715</td>\n",
- " <td>153.0</td>\n",
- " <td>104.6</td>\n",
- " <td>1.462715</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-03-27</td>\n",
- " <td>12507.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11549.6</td>\n",
- " <td>722</td>\n",
- " <td>957.4</td>\n",
- " <td>957.4</td>\n",
- " <td>0.754126</td>\n",
- " <td>437.5</td>\n",
- " <td>531.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.823917</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-03</td>\n",
- " <td>18565.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11681.4</td>\n",
- " <td>2898</td>\n",
- " <td>6883.6</td>\n",
- " <td>6883.6</td>\n",
- " <td>0.421001</td>\n",
- " <td>1810.0</td>\n",
- " <td>3920.5</td>\n",
- " <td>0.461676</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-10</td>\n",
- " <td>20929.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11919.4</td>\n",
- " <td>5909</td>\n",
- " <td>9009.6</td>\n",
- " <td>9009.6</td>\n",
- " <td>0.655856</td>\n",
- " <td>4403.5</td>\n",
- " <td>7946.6</td>\n",
- " <td>0.554136</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-17</td>\n",
- " <td>24691.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11850.6</td>\n",
- " <td>6338</td>\n",
- " <td>12840.4</td>\n",
- " <td>12840.4</td>\n",
- " <td>0.493598</td>\n",
- " <td>6123.5</td>\n",
- " <td>10925.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.560503</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-04-24</td>\n",
- " <td>24303.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11844.4</td>\n",
- " <td>5773</td>\n",
- " <td>12458.6</td>\n",
- " <td>12458.6</td>\n",
- " <td>0.463375</td>\n",
- " <td>6055.5</td>\n",
- " <td>12649.5</td>\n",
- " <td>0.478715</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-01</td>\n",
- " <td>20059.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11318.4</td>\n",
- " <td>4881</td>\n",
- " <td>8740.6</td>\n",
- " <td>8740.6</td>\n",
- " <td>0.558428</td>\n",
- " <td>5327.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10599.6</td>\n",
- " <td>0.502566</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-08</td>\n",
- " <td>14428.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10887.2</td>\n",
- " <td>3638</td>\n",
- " <td>3540.8</td>\n",
- " <td>3638.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.027451</td>\n",
- " <td>4259.5</td>\n",
- " <td>6140.7</td>\n",
- " <td>0.693651</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-15</td>\n",
- " <td>16390.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11547.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2671</td>\n",
- " <td>4843.0</td>\n",
- " <td>4843.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.551518</td>\n",
- " <td>3154.5</td>\n",
- " <td>4191.9</td>\n",
- " <td>0.752523</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-22</td>\n",
- " <td>13839.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11281.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2075</td>\n",
- " <td>2558.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2558.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.811181</td>\n",
- " <td>2373.0</td>\n",
- " <td>3700.5</td>\n",
- " <td>0.641265</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-05-29</td>\n",
- " <td>11265.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9448.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1890</td>\n",
- " <td>1817.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1890.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.040176</td>\n",
- " <td>1982.5</td>\n",
- " <td>2187.5</td>\n",
- " <td>0.906286</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-05</td>\n",
- " <td>12106.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11325.6</td>\n",
- " <td>1207</td>\n",
- " <td>780.4</td>\n",
- " <td>1207.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.546643</td>\n",
- " <td>1548.5</td>\n",
- " <td>1298.7</td>\n",
- " <td>1.192346</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-12</td>\n",
- " <td>11302.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10703.6</td>\n",
- " <td>937</td>\n",
- " <td>598.4</td>\n",
- " <td>937.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.565842</td>\n",
- " <td>1072.0</td>\n",
- " <td>689.4</td>\n",
- " <td>1.554975</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-19</td>\n",
- " <td>10694.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10698.2</td>\n",
- " <td>591</td>\n",
- " <td>-4.2</td>\n",
- " <td>591.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-140.714286</td>\n",
- " <td>764.0</td>\n",
- " <td>297.1</td>\n",
- " <td>2.571525</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-06-26</td>\n",
- " <td>10282.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10605.6</td>\n",
- " <td>480</td>\n",
- " <td>-323.6</td>\n",
- " <td>480.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-1.483313</td>\n",
- " <td>535.5</td>\n",
- " <td>-163.9</td>\n",
- " <td>-3.267236</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-03</td>\n",
- " <td>10412.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10483.0</td>\n",
- " <td>360</td>\n",
- " <td>-71.0</td>\n",
- " <td>360.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-5.070423</td>\n",
- " <td>420.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-197.3</td>\n",
- " <td>-2.128738</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-10</td>\n",
- " <td>9941.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10509.4</td>\n",
- " <td>253</td>\n",
- " <td>-568.4</td>\n",
- " <td>253.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.445109</td>\n",
- " <td>306.5</td>\n",
- " <td>-319.7</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.958711</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-17</td>\n",
- " <td>10096.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10360.6</td>\n",
- " <td>164</td>\n",
- " <td>-264.6</td>\n",
- " <td>164.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.619803</td>\n",
- " <td>208.5</td>\n",
- " <td>-416.5</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.500600</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-24</td>\n",
- " <td>10159.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10311.6</td>\n",
- " <td>107</td>\n",
- " <td>-152.6</td>\n",
- " <td>107.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.701180</td>\n",
- " <td>135.5</td>\n",
- " <td>-208.6</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.649569</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-07-31</td>\n",
- " <td>10262.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10307.4</td>\n",
- " <td>113</td>\n",
- " <td>-45.4</td>\n",
- " <td>113.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-2.488987</td>\n",
- " <td>110.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-99.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-1.111111</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-07</td>\n",
- " <td>10236.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10363.6</td>\n",
- " <td>89</td>\n",
- " <td>-127.6</td>\n",
- " <td>89.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.697492</td>\n",
- " <td>101.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-86.5</td>\n",
- " <td>-1.167630</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-14</td>\n",
- " <td>10592.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10345.8</td>\n",
- " <td>89</td>\n",
- " <td>246.2</td>\n",
- " <td>246.2</td>\n",
- " <td>0.361495</td>\n",
- " <td>89.0</td>\n",
- " <td>59.3</td>\n",
- " <td>1.500843</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-21</td>\n",
- " <td>10990.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10433.4</td>\n",
- " <td>56</td>\n",
- " <td>556.6</td>\n",
- " <td>556.6</td>\n",
- " <td>0.100611</td>\n",
- " <td>72.5</td>\n",
- " <td>401.4</td>\n",
- " <td>0.180618</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-08-28</td>\n",
- " <td>9023.0</td>\n",
- " <td>9472.2</td>\n",
- " <td>74</td>\n",
- " <td>-449.2</td>\n",
- " <td>74.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.164737</td>\n",
- " <td>65.0</td>\n",
- " <td>53.7</td>\n",
- " <td>1.210428</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-04</td>\n",
- " <td>10364.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10430.4</td>\n",
- " <td>50</td>\n",
- " <td>-66.4</td>\n",
- " <td>50.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.753012</td>\n",
- " <td>62.0</td>\n",
- " <td>-257.8</td>\n",
- " <td>-0.240497</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-11</td>\n",
- " <td>11176.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10610.8</td>\n",
- " <td>81</td>\n",
- " <td>565.2</td>\n",
- " <td>565.2</td>\n",
- " <td>0.143312</td>\n",
- " <td>65.5</td>\n",
- " <td>249.4</td>\n",
- " <td>0.262630</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-18</td>\n",
- " <td>10797.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10545.8</td>\n",
- " <td>97</td>\n",
- " <td>251.2</td>\n",
- " <td>251.2</td>\n",
- " <td>0.386146</td>\n",
- " <td>89.0</td>\n",
- " <td>408.2</td>\n",
- " <td>0.218030</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-09-25</td>\n",
- " <td>10890.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10709.6</td>\n",
- " <td>197</td>\n",
- " <td>180.4</td>\n",
- " <td>197.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.092018</td>\n",
- " <td>147.0</td>\n",
- " <td>215.8</td>\n",
- " <td>0.681186</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-02</td>\n",
- " <td>11468.0</td>\n",
- " <td>10890.8</td>\n",
- " <td>300</td>\n",
- " <td>577.2</td>\n",
- " <td>577.2</td>\n",
- " <td>0.519751</td>\n",
- " <td>248.5</td>\n",
- " <td>378.8</td>\n",
- " <td>0.656019</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-09</td>\n",
- " <td>11373.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11186.4</td>\n",
- " <td>390</td>\n",
- " <td>186.6</td>\n",
- " <td>390.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2.090032</td>\n",
- " <td>345.0</td>\n",
- " <td>381.9</td>\n",
- " <td>0.903378</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-16</td>\n",
- " <td>11943.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11224.8</td>\n",
- " <td>701</td>\n",
- " <td>718.2</td>\n",
- " <td>718.2</td>\n",
- " <td>0.976051</td>\n",
- " <td>545.5</td>\n",
- " <td>452.4</td>\n",
- " <td>1.205791</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-23</td>\n",
- " <td>12317.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11093.2</td>\n",
- " <td>1054</td>\n",
- " <td>1223.8</td>\n",
- " <td>1223.8</td>\n",
- " <td>0.861252</td>\n",
- " <td>877.5</td>\n",
- " <td>971.0</td>\n",
- " <td>0.903708</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-10-30</td>\n",
- " <td>12517.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11257.6</td>\n",
- " <td>1608</td>\n",
- " <td>1259.4</td>\n",
- " <td>1608.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.276798</td>\n",
- " <td>1331.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1241.6</td>\n",
- " <td>1.072004</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-06</td>\n",
- " <td>13448.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11729.4</td>\n",
- " <td>2165</td>\n",
- " <td>1718.6</td>\n",
- " <td>2165.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.259746</td>\n",
- " <td>1886.5</td>\n",
- " <td>1489.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.266958</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-13</td>\n",
- " <td>13798.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11803.6</td>\n",
- " <td>2808</td>\n",
- " <td>1994.4</td>\n",
- " <td>2808.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.407942</td>\n",
- " <td>2486.5</td>\n",
- " <td>1856.5</td>\n",
- " <td>1.339348</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-20</td>\n",
- " <td>14291.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11821.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2847</td>\n",
- " <td>2470.0</td>\n",
- " <td>2847.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.152632</td>\n",
- " <td>2827.5</td>\n",
- " <td>2232.2</td>\n",
- " <td>1.266688</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " <tr>\n",
- " <td>2020-11-27</td>\n",
- " <td>14132.0</td>\n",
- " <td>11802.0</td>\n",
- " <td>3256</td>\n",
- " <td>2330.0</td>\n",
- " <td>3256.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.397425</td>\n",
- " <td>3051.5</td>\n",
- " <td>2400.0</td>\n",
- " <td>1.271458</td>\n",
- " </tr>\n",
- " </tbody>\n",
- "</table>\n",
- "</div>"
- ],
- "text/plain": [
- " total_2020 previous_mean covid_deaths excess attributable \\\n",
- "2020-03-20 12112.0 12007.4 153 104.6 153.0 \n",
- "2020-03-27 12507.0 11549.6 722 957.4 957.4 \n",
- "2020-04-03 18565.0 11681.4 2898 6883.6 6883.6 \n",
- "2020-04-10 20929.0 11919.4 5909 9009.6 9009.6 \n",
- "2020-04-17 24691.0 11850.6 6338 12840.4 12840.4 \n",
- "2020-04-24 24303.0 11844.4 5773 12458.6 12458.6 \n",
- "2020-05-01 20059.0 11318.4 4881 8740.6 8740.6 \n",
- "2020-05-08 14428.0 10887.2 3638 3540.8 3638.0 \n",
- "2020-05-15 16390.0 11547.0 2671 4843.0 4843.0 \n",
- "2020-05-22 13839.0 11281.0 2075 2558.0 2558.0 \n",
- "2020-05-29 11265.0 9448.0 1890 1817.0 1890.0 \n",
- "2020-06-05 12106.0 11325.6 1207 780.4 1207.0 \n",
- "2020-06-12 11302.0 10703.6 937 598.4 937.0 \n",
- "2020-06-19 10694.0 10698.2 591 -4.2 591.0 \n",
- "2020-06-26 10282.0 10605.6 480 -323.6 480.0 \n",
- "2020-07-03 10412.0 10483.0 360 -71.0 360.0 \n",
- "2020-07-10 9941.0 10509.4 253 -568.4 253.0 \n",
- "2020-07-17 10096.0 10360.6 164 -264.6 164.0 \n",
- "2020-07-24 10159.0 10311.6 107 -152.6 107.0 \n",
- "2020-07-31 10262.0 10307.4 113 -45.4 113.0 \n",
- "2020-08-07 10236.0 10363.6 89 -127.6 89.0 \n",
- "2020-08-14 10592.0 10345.8 89 246.2 246.2 \n",
- "2020-08-21 10990.0 10433.4 56 556.6 556.6 \n",
- "2020-08-28 9023.0 9472.2 74 -449.2 74.0 \n",
- "2020-09-04 10364.0 10430.4 50 -66.4 50.0 \n",
- "2020-09-11 11176.0 10610.8 81 565.2 565.2 \n",
- "2020-09-18 10797.0 10545.8 97 251.2 251.2 \n",
- "2020-09-25 10890.0 10709.6 197 180.4 197.0 \n",
- "2020-10-02 11468.0 10890.8 300 577.2 577.2 \n",
- "2020-10-09 11373.0 11186.4 390 186.6 390.0 \n",
- "2020-10-16 11943.0 11224.8 701 718.2 718.2 \n",
- "2020-10-23 12317.0 11093.2 1054 1223.8 1223.8 \n",
- "2020-10-30 12517.0 11257.6 1608 1259.4 1608.0 \n",
- "2020-11-06 13448.0 11729.4 2165 1718.6 2165.0 \n",
- "2020-11-13 13798.0 11803.6 2808 1994.4 2808.0 \n",
- "2020-11-20 14291.0 11821.0 2847 2470.0 2847.0 \n",
- "2020-11-27 14132.0 11802.0 3256 2330.0 3256.0 \n",
- "\n",
- " accounted_fraction covid_deaths_m2 excess_m2 \\\n",
- "2020-03-20 1.462715 153.0 104.6 \n",
- "2020-03-27 0.754126 437.5 531.0 \n",
- "2020-04-03 0.421001 1810.0 3920.5 \n",
- "2020-04-10 0.655856 4403.5 7946.6 \n",
- "2020-04-17 0.493598 6123.5 10925.0 \n",
- "2020-04-24 0.463375 6055.5 12649.5 \n",
- "2020-05-01 0.558428 5327.0 10599.6 \n",
- "2020-05-08 1.027451 4259.5 6140.7 \n",
- "2020-05-15 0.551518 3154.5 4191.9 \n",
- "2020-05-22 0.811181 2373.0 3700.5 \n",
- "2020-05-29 1.040176 1982.5 2187.5 \n",
- "2020-06-05 1.546643 1548.5 1298.7 \n",
- "2020-06-12 1.565842 1072.0 689.4 \n",
- "2020-06-19 -140.714286 764.0 297.1 \n",
- "2020-06-26 -1.483313 535.5 -163.9 \n",
- "2020-07-03 -5.070423 420.0 -197.3 \n",
- "2020-07-10 -0.445109 306.5 -319.7 \n",
- "2020-07-17 -0.619803 208.5 -416.5 \n",
- "2020-07-24 -0.701180 135.5 -208.6 \n",
- "2020-07-31 -2.488987 110.0 -99.0 \n",
- "2020-08-07 -0.697492 101.0 -86.5 \n",
- "2020-08-14 0.361495 89.0 59.3 \n",
- "2020-08-21 0.100611 72.5 401.4 \n",
- "2020-08-28 -0.164737 65.0 53.7 \n",
- "2020-09-04 -0.753012 62.0 -257.8 \n",
- "2020-09-11 0.143312 65.5 249.4 \n",
- "2020-09-18 0.386146 89.0 408.2 \n",
- "2020-09-25 1.092018 147.0 215.8 \n",
- "2020-10-02 0.519751 248.5 378.8 \n",
- "2020-10-09 2.090032 345.0 381.9 \n",
- "2020-10-16 0.976051 545.5 452.4 \n",
- "2020-10-23 0.861252 877.5 971.0 \n",
- "2020-10-30 1.276798 1331.0 1241.6 \n",
- "2020-11-06 1.259746 1886.5 1489.0 \n",
- "2020-11-13 1.407942 2486.5 1856.5 \n",
- "2020-11-20 1.152632 2827.5 2232.2 \n",
- "2020-11-27 1.397425 3051.5 2400.0 \n",
- "\n",
- " accounted_fraction_m2 \n",
- "2020-03-20 1.462715 \n",
- "2020-03-27 0.823917 \n",
- "2020-04-03 0.461676 \n",
- "2020-04-10 0.554136 \n",
- "2020-04-17 0.560503 \n",
- "2020-04-24 0.478715 \n",
- "2020-05-01 0.502566 \n",
- "2020-05-08 0.693651 \n",
- "2020-05-15 0.752523 \n",
- "2020-05-22 0.641265 \n",
- "2020-05-29 0.906286 \n",
- "2020-06-05 1.192346 \n",
- "2020-06-12 1.554975 \n",
- "2020-06-19 2.571525 \n",
- "2020-06-26 -3.267236 \n",
- "2020-07-03 -2.128738 \n",
- "2020-07-10 -0.958711 \n",
- "2020-07-17 -0.500600 \n",
- "2020-07-24 -0.649569 \n",
- "2020-07-31 -1.111111 \n",
- "2020-08-07 -1.167630 \n",
- "2020-08-14 1.500843 \n",
- "2020-08-21 0.180618 \n",
- "2020-08-28 1.210428 \n",
- "2020-09-04 -0.240497 \n",
- "2020-09-11 0.262630 \n",
- "2020-09-18 0.218030 \n",
- "2020-09-25 0.681186 \n",
- "2020-10-02 0.656019 \n",
- "2020-10-09 0.903378 \n",
- "2020-10-16 1.205791 \n",
- "2020-10-23 0.903708 \n",
- "2020-10-30 1.072004 \n",
- "2020-11-06 1.266958 \n",
- "2020-11-13 1.339348 \n",
- "2020-11-20 1.266688 \n",
- "2020-11-27 1.271458 "
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 76,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "excess_deaths['covid_deaths_m2'] = excess_deaths.covid_deaths.transform(lambda x: x.rolling(2, 1).mean())\n",
- "excess_deaths['excess_m2'] = excess_deaths.excess.transform(lambda x: x.rolling(2, 1).mean())\n",
- "excess_deaths['accounted_fraction_m2'] = excess_deaths.covid_deaths_m2 / excess_deaths.excess_m2\n",
- "excess_deaths"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 77,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/plain": [
- "<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x7f41bf8727d0>"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 77,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- },
- {
- "data": {
- "image/png": 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\n",
- "text/plain": [
- "<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"
- ]
- },
- "metadata": {
- "needs_background": "light"
- },
- "output_type": "display_data"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "excess_deaths[['covid_deaths', 'excess', 'covid_deaths_m2', 'excess_m2']].plot()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 78,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/plain": [
- "<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x7f41bf7b8e10>"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 78,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- },
- {
- "data": {
- "image/png": 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\n",
- "text/plain": [
- "<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"
- ]
- },
- "metadata": {
- "needs_background": "light"
- },
- "output_type": "display_data"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "excess_deaths[['accounted_fraction', 'accounted_fraction_m2']].plot()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 79,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/plain": [
- "9772.4"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 79,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "excess_deaths.tail(5).excess.sum()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 80,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/plain": [
- "12684"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 80,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "excess_deaths.tail(5).covid_deaths.sum()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 81,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/plain": [
- "0.7704509618416903"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 81,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "excess_deaths.tail(5).excess.sum() / excess_deaths.tail(5).covid_deaths.sum()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 82,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/plain": [
- "0.7624733475479744"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 82,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "excess_deaths.tail(3).excess.sum() / excess_deaths.tail(3).covid_deaths.sum()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 83,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/plain": [
- "1"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 83,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "max(1, excess_deaths.tail(3).excess.sum() / excess_deaths.tail(3).covid_deaths.sum())"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 84,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# with open('excess_death_accuracy.json', 'w') as f:\n",
- "# # json.dump(max(1, excess_deaths.tail(3).excess.sum() / excess_deaths.tail(3).covid_deaths.sum()), f)\n",
- "# json.dump(1, f)"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 85,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [
- {
- "data": {
- "text/plain": [
- "'85807'"
- ]
- },
- "execution_count": 85,
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "execute_result"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "f'{excess_deaths.attributable.sum():.0f}'"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 86,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "excess_death_data = {\n",
- " 'start_date': str(excess_deaths.index[0]),\n",
- " 'end_date': str(excess_deaths.index[-1]),\n",
- " 'excess_deaths': f'{excess_deaths.attributable.sum():.0f}'\n",
- "}\n",
- "\n",
- "with open('excess_deaths.json', 'w') as f:\n",
- " json.dump(excess_death_data, f)"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {
- "Collapsed": "false"
- },
- "outputs": [],
- "source": []
- }
- ],
- "metadata": {
- "kernelspec": {
- "display_name": "Python 3",
- "language": "python",
- "name": "python3"
- },
- "language_info": {
- "codemirror_mode": {
- "name": "ipython",
- "version": 3
- },
- "file_extension": ".py",
- "mimetype": "text/x-python",
- "name": "python",
- "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
- "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
- "version": "3.8.5"
- }
- },
- "nbformat": 4,
- "nbformat_minor": 4
-}
projects / covid19.git / blobdiff