X-Git-Url: https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=blobdiff_plain;f=covid_summary.html;h=36bd6b84f2aa6c602282150ddd2079997a8a38bd;hp=b3b02217eec7fe5ed08a6d6244a91b5d79db7701;hb=4abff18d7988bdea04a267a08a0792ba570fe0bd;hpb=0fa9dcb25b4a7ee4e28c28f9c350add4f61f21ee

diff --git a/covid_summary.html b/covid_summary.html
index b3b0221..36bd6b8 100644
--- a/covid_summary.html
+++ b/covid_summary.html
@@ -20,10 +20,10 @@
 <header>
 <h1 class="title">Covid death data summary</h1>
 <p class="author">Neil Smith</p>
-<p class="date">Created on 2020-05-24</p>
+<p class="date">Created on 2020-08-19</p>
 </header>
 <blockquote>
-<p>Last UK data from 2020-05-23</p>
+<p>Last UK data from 2020-08-19</p>
 </blockquote>
 <h2 id="headlines">Headlines</h2>
 <table>
@@ -36,15 +36,15 @@
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td style="text-align: left;">Deaths reported so far</td>
-<td style="text-align: right;">30615</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">41381</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
-<td style="text-align: left;">Total Covid deaths to date</td>
-<td style="text-align: right;">64827</td>
+<td style="text-align: left;">Total Covid deaths to date (estimated)</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">65583</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
-<td style="text-align: left;">Projected total deaths up to 2020-06-09</td>
-<td style="text-align: right;">71110</td>
+<td style="text-align: left;">Projected total deaths up to 2020-09-13</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">65981</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
@@ -65,32 +65,32 @@
 <tr class="odd">
 <td style="text-align: left;">DE</td>
 <td style="text-align: left;">Germany</td>
-<td style="text-align: right;">8216</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">9243</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td style="text-align: left;">ES</td>
 <td style="text-align: left;">Spain</td>
-<td style="text-align: right;">28628</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">28670</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td style="text-align: left;">FR</td>
 <td style="text-align: left;">France</td>
-<td style="text-align: right;">28289</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">30451</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td style="text-align: left;">IE</td>
 <td style="text-align: left;">Ireland</td>
-<td style="text-align: right;">1592</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">1775</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td style="text-align: left;">IT</td>
 <td style="text-align: left;">Italy</td>
-<td style="text-align: right;">32616</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">35405</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td style="text-align: left;">UK</td>
 <td style="text-align: left;">United_Kingdom</td>
-<td style="text-align: right;">36393</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">41381</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
@@ -99,22 +99,76 @@
 <img src="deaths-radar.png" alt="All-causes deaths" /><figcaption>All-causes deaths</figcaption>
 </figure>
 <h3 id="excess-deaths">Excess deaths</h3>
-<p>From week ending 20 March 2020, there have been approximately <strong>54535</strong> excess deaths, over the average for the previous five years.</p>
-<p>In that period, the UK reported 30615 Covid deaths. That means the actual number of Covid death is about 1.78 times higher than the reported figures.</p>
-<p>The UK has reported 36393 deaths so far. Using the scaling factor above, I infer that there have been <strong>64827</strong> total deaths so far.</p>
+<p>From week ending 20 March 2020 until week ending 03 July 2020, there were approximately <strong>64734</strong> excess deaths, over the average for the previous five years.</p>
+<p>In that period, the UK reported 40532 Covid deaths. In the last three weeks for which excess deaths have been reported, the excess deaths have been 1.000 higher than the Covid-reported deaths.</p>
+<p>The UK has reported 41381 deaths so far. Using the scaling factor above (for Covid-19 deaths after the ONS figures), I infer that there have been <strong>65583</strong> total deaths so far.</p>
 <h2 id="deaths-per-day">Deaths per day</h2>
 <p>Based on a 7-day moving average</p>
 <figure>
 <img src="covid_deaths_per_day_7.png" alt="Deaths per day" /><figcaption>Deaths per day</figcaption>
 </figure>
 <h2 id="projected-deaths">Projected deaths</h2>
-<p>The UK’s daily deaths data is very similar to Italy’s. If I use the Italian data for the next 16 days, the UK will report 39920 deaths on day 87 of the epidemic.</p>
-<p>Using the excess deaths scaling from above, that will translate into <strong>71110</strong> Covid deaths total.</p>
+<p>The UK’s daily deaths data is very similar to Italy’s. If I use the Italian data for the next 24 days (from 25 May 2020 onwards), the UK will report 41684 deaths on day 183 of the epidemic.</p>
+<p>Using the excess deaths scaling from above, that will translate into <strong>65981</strong> Covid deaths total.</p>
 <h2 id="deaths-doubling-times">Deaths doubling times</h2>
 <p>Based on a 7-day moving average</p>
 <figure>
 <img src="covid_doubling_times_7.png" alt="Deaths doubling times" /><figcaption>Deaths doubling times</figcaption>
 </figure>
+<h2 id="cases-per-day-and-lockdown-dates">Cases per day and lockdown dates</h2>
+<p>Based on a 7-day moving average</p>
+<figure>
+<img src="cases_per_day_with_lockdown.png" alt="Cases per day" /><figcaption>Cases per day</figcaption>
+</figure>
+<table>
+<thead>
+<tr class="header">
+<th style="text-align: left;">Country ID</th>
+<th style="text-align: left;">Country name</th>
+<th style="text-align: right;">Most recent daily cases</th>
+<th style="text-align: right;">Most recent daily deaths</th>
+</tr>
+</thead>
+<tbody>
+<tr class="odd">
+<td style="text-align: left;">DE</td>
+<td style="text-align: left;">Germany</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">1199</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">5</td>
+</tr>
+<tr class="even">
+<td style="text-align: left;">ES</td>
+<td style="text-align: left;">Spain</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">5369</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">13</td>
+</tr>
+<tr class="odd">
+<td style="text-align: left;">FR</td>
+<td style="text-align: left;">France</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">2442</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">14</td>
+</tr>
+<tr class="even">
+<td style="text-align: left;">IE</td>
+<td style="text-align: left;">Ireland</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">100</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">0</td>
+</tr>
+<tr class="odd">
+<td style="text-align: left;">IT</td>
+<td style="text-align: left;">Italy</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">486</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">27</td>
+</tr>
+<tr class="even">
+<td style="text-align: left;">UK</td>
+<td style="text-align: left;">United_Kingdom</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">1071</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">10</td>
+</tr>
+</tbody>
+</table>
+<p>(Figures are 7-day averages)</p>
 <h1 id="data-sources">Data sources</h1>
 <blockquote>
 <p>Covid data from <a href="https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide">European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control</a></p>
@@ -128,7 +182,7 @@
 <li><a href="https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/weekly-data-on-births-and-deaths">National Records of Scotland</a> (Scotland). Note that Scotland uses ISO8601 week numbers, which start on a Monday.</li>
 </ul>
 <blockquote>
-<p><a href="https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=tree">Souce code available</a></p>
+<p><a href="https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=tree">Source code available</a></p>
 </blockquote>
 </body>
 </html>