X-Git-Url: https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=blobdiff_plain;f=covid_summary.md;h=e0006c239ee4969e832284780441d3ae208a3e0f;hp=f1d0266f6ea81e4e072df7955be1b39030bd7c07;hb=4abff18d7988bdea04a267a08a0792ba570fe0bd;hpb=0fa9dcb25b4a7ee4e28c28f9c350add4f61f21ee

diff --git a/covid_summary.md b/covid_summary.md
index f1d0266..e0006c2 100644
--- a/covid_summary.md
+++ b/covid_summary.md
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 % Covid death data summary
 % Neil Smith
-% Created on 2020-05-24
+% Created on 2020-08-19
 
-> Last UK data from 2020-05-23
+> Last UK data from 2020-08-19
 
 ## Headlines
 
 | []() | |
 |:---|---:|
-| Deaths reported so far | 30615 | 
-| Total Covid deaths to date | 64827 |
-| Projected total deaths up to 2020-06-09 | 71110 | 
+| Deaths reported so far | 41381 | 
+| Total Covid deaths to date (estimated) | 65583 |
+| Projected total deaths up to 2020-09-13 | 65981 | 
 
 
 ## Total deaths
@@ -20,12 +20,12 @@ Time based on days since 10 deaths
 
 | Country ID | Country name | Total deaths |
 |:-----------|:-------------|-------------:|
-| DE | Germany | 8216 |
-| ES | Spain | 28628 |
-| FR | France | 28289 |
-| IE | Ireland | 1592 |
-| IT | Italy | 32616 |
-| UK | United_Kingdom | 36393 |
+| DE | Germany | 9243 |
+| ES | Spain | 28670 |
+| FR | France | 30451 |
+| IE | Ireland | 1775 |
+| IT | Italy | 35405 |
+| UK | United_Kingdom | 41381 |
 
 
 ## All-causes deaths, UK
@@ -34,13 +34,13 @@ Time based on days since 10 deaths
 
 ### Excess deaths
 
-From week ending 20 March 2020, there have been approximately **54535** excess deaths, over the average for the previous five years.
+From week ending 20 March 2020 until week ending 03 July 2020, there were approximately **64734** excess deaths, over the average for the previous five years.
 
-In that period, the UK reported 30615 Covid deaths.
-That means the actual number of Covid death is about 1.78 times higher than the reported figures.
+In that period, the UK reported 40532 Covid deaths.
+In the last three weeks for which excess deaths have been reported, the excess deaths have been 1.000 higher than the Covid-reported deaths.
 
-The UK has reported 36393 deaths so far.
-Using the scaling factor above, I infer that there have been **64827** total deaths so far.
+The UK has reported 41381 deaths so far.
+Using the scaling factor above (for Covid-19 deaths after the ONS figures), I infer that there have been **65583** total deaths so far.
 
 
 ## Deaths per day
@@ -51,9 +51,9 @@ Based on a 7-day moving average
 
 ## Projected deaths
 The UK's daily deaths data is very similar to Italy's.
-If I use the Italian data for the next 16 days, the UK will report 39920 deaths on day 87 of the epidemic.
+If I use the Italian data for the next 24 days (from 25 May 2020 onwards), the UK will report 41684 deaths on day 183 of the epidemic.
 
-Using the excess deaths scaling from above, that will translate into **71110** Covid deaths total.
+Using the excess deaths scaling from above, that will translate into **65981** Covid deaths total.
 
 
 ## Deaths doubling times
@@ -61,6 +61,24 @@ Based on a 7-day moving average
 
 ![Deaths doubling times](covid_doubling_times_7.png)
 
+
+## Cases per day and lockdown dates
+Based on a 7-day moving average
+
+![Cases per day](cases_per_day_with_lockdown.png)
+
+
+| Country ID | Country name | Most recent daily cases | Most recent daily deaths |
+|:-----------|:-------------|------------------------:|-------------------------:|
+| DE | Germany | 1199 | 5 | 
+| ES | Spain | 5369 | 13 | 
+| FR | France | 2442 | 14 | 
+| IE | Ireland | 100 | 0 | 
+| IT | Italy | 486 | 27 | 
+| UK | United_Kingdom | 1071 | 10 | 
+
+(Figures are 7-day averages)
+
 # Data sources
 
 > Covid data from [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide)
@@ -71,5 +89,5 @@ Based on a 7-day moving average
 * [Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency](https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths) (Northern Ireland). Weeks start on a Saturday. Note that the week numbers don't match the England and Wales data.
 * [National Records of Scotland](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/weekly-data-on-births-and-deaths) (Scotland). Note that Scotland uses ISO8601 week numbers, which start on a Monday.
 
-> [Souce code available](https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=tree)
+> [Source code available](https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=tree)