General updates

[covid19.git] / covid_summary.md

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+% Covid death data summary
+% Neil Smith
+% Created on 2020-05-24
+
+> Last UK data from 2020-05-23
+
+## Headlines
+
+| []() | |
+|:---|---:|
+| Deaths reported so far | 30615 | 
+| Total Covid deaths to date | 64827 |
+| Projected total deaths up to 2020-06-09 | 71110 | 
+
+
+## Total deaths
+Time based on days since 10 deaths
+
+![Total deaths](covid_deaths_total_linear.png)
+
+| Country ID | Country name | Total deaths |
+|:-----------|:-------------|-------------:|
+| DE | Germany | 8216 |
+| ES | Spain | 28628 |
+| FR | France | 28289 |
+| IE | Ireland | 1592 |
+| IT | Italy | 32616 |
+| UK | United_Kingdom | 36393 |
+
+
+## All-causes deaths, UK
+
+![All-causes deaths](deaths-radar.png)
+
+### Excess deaths
+
+From week ending 20 March 2020, there have been approximately **54535** excess deaths, over the average for the previous five years.
+
+In that period, the UK reported 30615 Covid deaths.
+That means the actual number of Covid death is about 1.78 times higher than the reported figures.
+
+The UK has reported 36393 deaths so far.
+Using the scaling factor above, I infer that there have been **64827** total deaths so far.
+
+
+## Deaths per day
+Based on a 7-day moving average
+
+![Deaths per day](covid_deaths_per_day_7.png)
+
+
+## Projected deaths
+The UK's daily deaths data is very similar to Italy's.
+If I use the Italian data for the next 16 days, the UK will report 39920 deaths on day 87 of the epidemic.
+
+Using the excess deaths scaling from above, that will translate into **71110** Covid deaths total.
+
+
+## Deaths doubling times
+Based on a 7-day moving average
+
+![Deaths doubling times](covid_doubling_times_7.png)
+
+# Data sources
+
+> Covid data from [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide)
+
+> Population data from:
+
+* [Office of National Statistics](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales) (Endland and Wales) Weeks start on a Saturday.
+* [Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency](https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths) (Northern Ireland). Weeks start on a Saturday. Note that the week numbers don't match the England and Wales data.
+* [National Records of Scotland](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/weekly-data-on-births-and-deaths) (Scotland). Note that Scotland uses ISO8601 week numbers, which start on a Monday.
+
+> [Souce code available](https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=tree)
+