General updates

[covid19.git] / covid_summary.md

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 % Covid death data summary
 % Neil Smith
-% Created on 2020-08-19
+% Created on 2021-04-10
 
-> Last UK data from 2020-08-19
+> Last UK data from 10 Apr 2021.  Last international data from 04 Apr 2021.
 
-## Headlines
+## Headlines (UK data)
 
 | []() | |
 |:---|---:|
-| Deaths reported so far | 41381 | 
-| Total Covid deaths to date (estimated) | 65583 |
-| Projected total deaths up to 2020-09-13 | 65981 | 
+| Deaths reported so far | 127080 | 
+| Deaths in last 30 days | 1914 | 
+| Cases in last 30 days  | 120981 | 
 
+## International comparison
 
-## Total deaths
-Time based on days since 10 deaths
+Based on weekly data. Last data from 04 Apr 2021
+
+### Total deaths
 
 ![Total deaths](covid_deaths_total_linear.png)
 
 | Country ID | Country name | Total deaths |
 |:-----------|:-------------|-------------:|
-| DE | Germany | 9243 |
-| ES | Spain | 28670 |
-| FR | France | 30451 |
-| IE | Ireland | 1775 |
-| IT | Italy | 35405 |
-| UK | United_Kingdom | 41381 |
+| BEL | Belgium | 23198 |
+| DEU | Germany | 77013 |
+| ESP | Spain | 75783 |
+| FRA | France | 96678 |
+| GBR | United Kingdom | 126836 |
+| IRL | Ireland | 4718 |
+| ITA | Italy | 111030 |
+
+### Deaths per week
 
+![Deaths per week](covid_deaths_per_week.png)
 
-## All-causes deaths, UK
+![Deaths per week, last 6 weeks](deaths_by_date_last_6_weeks.png)
 
-![All-causes deaths](deaths-radar.png)
+## UK data
 
-### Excess deaths
+### Total deaths
 
-From week ending 20 March 2020 until week ending 03 July 2020, there were approximately **64734** excess deaths, over the average for the previous five years.
+Deaths reported up to 10 Apr 2021: 127080
 
-In that period, the UK reported 40532 Covid deaths.
-In the last three weeks for which excess deaths have been reported, the excess deaths have been 1.000 higher than the Covid-reported deaths.
+![Total deaths](cases_and_deaths.png)
 
-The UK has reported 41381 deaths so far.
-Using the scaling factor above (for Covid-19 deaths after the ONS figures), I infer that there have been **65583** total deaths so far.
+![Cases and deaths in last 60 days](cases_and_deaths_last_60_days.png)
 
+![Deaths compared to past five years](deaths_radar_2021.png)
 
-## Deaths per day
+### Hospital care
 Based on a 7-day moving average
 
-![Deaths per day](covid_deaths_per_day_7.png)
+![Cases, admissions, deaths](cases_admissions_deaths.png)
 
+Due to the large scale differences between the three measures, they are all normalised to show changes since 01 August 2020.
 
-## Projected deaths
-The UK's daily deaths data is very similar to Italy's.
-If I use the Italian data for the next 24 days (from 25 May 2020 onwards), the UK will report 41684 deaths on day 183 of the epidemic.
+People in hospital, and on mechanical ventilators
 
-Using the excess deaths scaling from above, that will translate into **65981** Covid deaths total.
+![People in hospital and on mechancial ventilators](people_in_hospital.png)
 
+### Testing effectiveness
 
-## Deaths doubling times
-Based on a 7-day moving average
+A question about testing is whether more detected cases is a result of more tests being done or is because the number of cases is increasing. One way of telling the differeence is by looking at the fraction of tests that are positive.
 
-![Deaths doubling times](covid_doubling_times_7.png)
+![Positive tests and cases](tests_and_cases.png)
 
+Numbers of positive tests and cases, 7-day moving average.
+Note the different y-axes
 
-## Cases per day and lockdown dates
-Based on a 7-day moving average
+![Fraction of tests with positive result](fraction_positive_tests.png)
+
+Fraction of tests with a positive result, both daily figures and 7-day moving average.
+
+
+![Tests against fraction positive, trajectory](fraction_positive_tests_vs_tests.png)
 
-![Cases per day](cases_per_day_with_lockdown.png)
+The trajectory of tests done vs fraction positive tests.
 
+Points higher indicate more tests; points to the right indicate more positive tests.More tests being done with the same infection prevelance will move the point up and to the left.
 
-| Country ID | Country name | Most recent daily cases | Most recent daily deaths |
-|:-----------|:-------------|------------------------:|-------------------------:|
-| DE | Germany | 1199 | 5 | 
-| ES | Spain | 5369 | 13 | 
-| FR | France | 2442 | 14 | 
-| IE | Ireland | 100 | 0 | 
-| IT | Italy | 486 | 27 | 
-| UK | United_Kingdom | 1071 | 10 | 
 
-(Figures are 7-day averages)
+![Tests against fraction positive, trajectory](tests_vs_fraction_positive_animation.png)
 
 # Data sources