General updates

[covid19.git] / covid_summary.md

diff --git a/covid_summary.md b/covid_summary.md
index f1d0266f6ea81e4e072df7955be1b39030bd7c07..6f37ffd6191eb36b163f2087ca8ba66667172fb7 100644 (file)
--- a/covid_summary.md
+++ b/covid_summary.md
@@ -1,65 +1,86 @@
 % Covid death data summary
 % Neil Smith
-% Created on 2020-05-24
+% Created on 2021-04-10
 
-> Last UK data from 2020-05-23
+> Last UK data from 10 Apr 2021.  Last international data from 04 Apr 2021.
 
-## Headlines
+## Headlines (UK data)
 
 | []() | |
 |:---|---:|
-| Deaths reported so far | 30615 | 
-| Total Covid deaths to date | 64827 |
-| Projected total deaths up to 2020-06-09 | 71110 | 
+| Deaths reported so far | 127080 | 
+| Deaths in last 30 days | 1914 | 
+| Cases in last 30 days  | 120981 | 
 
+## International comparison
 
-## Total deaths
-Time based on days since 10 deaths
+Based on weekly data. Last data from 04 Apr 2021
+
+### Total deaths
 
 ![Total deaths](covid_deaths_total_linear.png)
 
 | Country ID | Country name | Total deaths |
 |:-----------|:-------------|-------------:|
-| DE | Germany | 8216 |
-| ES | Spain | 28628 |
-| FR | France | 28289 |
-| IE | Ireland | 1592 |
-| IT | Italy | 32616 |
-| UK | United_Kingdom | 36393 |
+| BEL | Belgium | 23198 |
+| DEU | Germany | 77013 |
+| ESP | Spain | 75783 |
+| FRA | France | 96678 |
+| GBR | United Kingdom | 126836 |
+| IRL | Ireland | 4718 |
+| ITA | Italy | 111030 |
+
+### Deaths per week
 
+![Deaths per week](covid_deaths_per_week.png)
 
-## All-causes deaths, UK
+![Deaths per week, last 6 weeks](deaths_by_date_last_6_weeks.png)
 
-![All-causes deaths](deaths-radar.png)
+## UK data
 
-### Excess deaths
+### Total deaths
 
-From week ending 20 March 2020, there have been approximately **54535** excess deaths, over the average for the previous five years.
+Deaths reported up to 10 Apr 2021: 127080
 
-In that period, the UK reported 30615 Covid deaths.
-That means the actual number of Covid death is about 1.78 times higher than the reported figures.
+![Total deaths](cases_and_deaths.png)
 
-The UK has reported 36393 deaths so far.
-Using the scaling factor above, I infer that there have been **64827** total deaths so far.
+![Cases and deaths in last 60 days](cases_and_deaths_last_60_days.png)
 
+![Deaths compared to past five years](deaths_radar_2021.png)
 
-## Deaths per day
+### Hospital care
 Based on a 7-day moving average
 
-![Deaths per day](covid_deaths_per_day_7.png)
+![Cases, admissions, deaths](cases_admissions_deaths.png)
 
+Due to the large scale differences between the three measures, they are all normalised to show changes since 01 August 2020.
 
-## Projected deaths
-The UK's daily deaths data is very similar to Italy's.
-If I use the Italian data for the next 16 days, the UK will report 39920 deaths on day 87 of the epidemic.
+People in hospital, and on mechanical ventilators
 
-Using the excess deaths scaling from above, that will translate into **71110** Covid deaths total.
+![People in hospital and on mechancial ventilators](people_in_hospital.png)
 
+### Testing effectiveness
+
+A question about testing is whether more detected cases is a result of more tests being done or is because the number of cases is increasing. One way of telling the differeence is by looking at the fraction of tests that are positive.
+
+![Positive tests and cases](tests_and_cases.png)
+
+Numbers of positive tests and cases, 7-day moving average.
+Note the different y-axes
+
+![Fraction of tests with positive result](fraction_positive_tests.png)
+
+Fraction of tests with a positive result, both daily figures and 7-day moving average.
+
+
+![Tests against fraction positive, trajectory](fraction_positive_tests_vs_tests.png)
+
+The trajectory of tests done vs fraction positive tests.
+
+Points higher indicate more tests; points to the right indicate more positive tests.More tests being done with the same infection prevelance will move the point up and to the left.
 
-## Deaths doubling times
-Based on a 7-day moving average
 
-![Deaths doubling times](covid_doubling_times_7.png)
+![Tests against fraction positive, trajectory](tests_vs_fraction_positive_animation.png)
 
 # Data sources
 
@@ -71,5 +92,5 @@ Based on a 7-day moving average
 * [Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency](https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths) (Northern Ireland). Weeks start on a Saturday. Note that the week numbers don't match the England and Wales data.
 * [National Records of Scotland](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/weekly-data-on-births-and-deaths) (Scotland). Note that Scotland uses ISO8601 week numbers, which start on a Monday.
 
-> [Souce code available](https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=tree)
+> [Source code available](https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=tree)