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8 <title>Covid death data summary
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21 <h1 class=
"title">Covid death data summary
</h1>
22 <p class=
"author">Neil Smith
</p>
23 <p class=
"date">Created on
2020-
05-
24</p>
26 <p>Last UK data from
2020-
05-
23</p>
28 <h2 id=
"headlines">Headlines
</h2>
32 <th style=
"text-align: left;"><a href=
""></a></th>
33 <th style=
"text-align: right;"></th>
38 <td style=
"text-align: left;">Deaths reported so far
</td>
39 <td style=
"text-align: right;">30615</td>
42 <td style=
"text-align: left;">Total Covid deaths to date
</td>
43 <td style=
"text-align: right;">64827</td>
46 <td style=
"text-align: left;">Projected total deaths up to
2020-
06-
09</td>
47 <td style=
"text-align: right;">71110</td>
51 <h2 id=
"total-deaths">Total deaths
</h2>
52 <p>Time based on days since
10 deaths
</p>
54 <img src=
"covid_deaths_total_linear.png" alt=
"Total deaths" /><figcaption>Total deaths
</figcaption>
59 <th style=
"text-align: left;">Country ID
</th>
60 <th style=
"text-align: left;">Country name
</th>
61 <th style=
"text-align: right;">Total deaths
</th>
66 <td style=
"text-align: left;">DE
</td>
67 <td style=
"text-align: left;">Germany
</td>
68 <td style=
"text-align: right;">8216</td>
71 <td style=
"text-align: left;">ES
</td>
72 <td style=
"text-align: left;">Spain
</td>
73 <td style=
"text-align: right;">28628</td>
76 <td style=
"text-align: left;">FR
</td>
77 <td style=
"text-align: left;">France
</td>
78 <td style=
"text-align: right;">28289</td>
81 <td style=
"text-align: left;">IE
</td>
82 <td style=
"text-align: left;">Ireland
</td>
83 <td style=
"text-align: right;">1592</td>
86 <td style=
"text-align: left;">IT
</td>
87 <td style=
"text-align: left;">Italy
</td>
88 <td style=
"text-align: right;">32616</td>
91 <td style=
"text-align: left;">UK
</td>
92 <td style=
"text-align: left;">United_Kingdom
</td>
93 <td style=
"text-align: right;">36393</td>
97 <h2 id=
"all-causes-deaths-uk">All-causes deaths, UK
</h2>
99 <img src=
"deaths-radar.png" alt=
"All-causes deaths" /><figcaption>All-causes deaths
</figcaption>
101 <h3 id=
"excess-deaths">Excess deaths
</h3>
102 <p>From week ending
20 March
2020, there have been approximately
<strong>54535</strong> excess deaths, over the average for the previous five years.
</p>
103 <p>In that period, the UK reported
30615 Covid deaths. That means the actual number of Covid death is about
1.78 times higher than the reported figures.
</p>
104 <p>The UK has reported
36393 deaths so far. Using the scaling factor above, I infer that there have been
<strong>64827</strong> total deaths so far.
</p>
105 <h2 id=
"deaths-per-day">Deaths per day
</h2>
106 <p>Based on a
7-day moving average
</p>
108 <img src=
"covid_deaths_per_day_7.png" alt=
"Deaths per day" /><figcaption>Deaths per day
</figcaption>
110 <h2 id=
"projected-deaths">Projected deaths
</h2>
111 <p>The UK’s daily deaths data is very similar to Italy’s. If I use the Italian data for the next
16 days, the UK will report
39920 deaths on day
87 of the epidemic.
</p>
112 <p>Using the excess deaths scaling from above, that will translate into
<strong>71110</strong> Covid deaths total.
</p>
113 <h2 id=
"deaths-doubling-times">Deaths doubling times
</h2>
114 <p>Based on a
7-day moving average
</p>
116 <img src=
"covid_doubling_times_7.png" alt=
"Deaths doubling times" /><figcaption>Deaths doubling times
</figcaption>
118 <h1 id=
"data-sources">Data sources
</h1>
120 <p>Covid data from
<a href=
"https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide">European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
</a></p>
123 <p>Population data from:
</p>
126 <li><a href=
"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales">Office of National Statistics
</a> (Endland and Wales) Weeks start on a Saturday.
</li>
127 <li><a href=
"https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths">Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
</a> (Northern Ireland). Weeks start on a Saturday. Note that the week numbers don’t match the England and Wales data.
</li>
128 <li><a href=
"https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/weekly-data-on-births-and-deaths">National Records of Scotland
</a> (Scotland). Note that Scotland uses ISO8601 week numbers, which start on a Monday.
</li>
131 <p><a href=
"https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=tree">Souce code available
</a></p>