covid_summary.md

   1 % Covid death data summary
   2 % Neil Smith
   3 % Created on 2020-08-19
   4
   5 > Last UK data from 2020-08-19
   6
   7 ## Headlines
   8
   9 | []() | |
  10 |:---|---:|
  11 | Deaths reported so far | 41381 |
  12 | Total Covid deaths to date (estimated) | 65583 |
  13 | Projected total deaths up to 2020-09-13 | 65981 |
  14
  15
  16 ## Total deaths
  17 Time based on days since 10 deaths
  18
  19 ![Total deaths](covid_deaths_total_linear.png)
  20
  21 | Country ID | Country name | Total deaths |
  22 |:-----------|:-------------|-------------:|
  23 | DE | Germany | 9243 |
  24 | ES | Spain | 28670 |
  25 | FR | France | 30451 |
  26 | IE | Ireland | 1775 |
  27 | IT | Italy | 35405 |
  28 | UK | United_Kingdom | 41381 |
  29
  30
  31 ## All-causes deaths, UK
  32
  33 ![All-causes deaths](deaths-radar.png)
  34
  35 ### Excess deaths
  36
  37 From week ending 20 March 2020 until week ending 03 July 2020, there were approximately **64734** excess deaths, over the average for the previous five years.
  38
  39 In that period, the UK reported 40532 Covid deaths.
  40 In the last three weeks for which excess deaths have been reported, the excess deaths have been 1.000 higher than the Covid-reported deaths.
  41
  42 The UK has reported 41381 deaths so far.
  43 Using the scaling factor above (for Covid-19 deaths after the ONS figures), I infer that there have been **65583** total deaths so far.
  44
  45
  46 ## Deaths per day
  47 Based on a 7-day moving average
  48
  49 ![Deaths per day](covid_deaths_per_day_7.png)
  50
  51
  52 ## Projected deaths
  53 The UK's daily deaths data is very similar to Italy's.
  54 If I use the Italian data for the next 24 days (from 25 May 2020 onwards), the UK will report 41684 deaths on day 183 of the epidemic.
  55
  56 Using the excess deaths scaling from above, that will translate into **65981** Covid deaths total.
  57
  58
  59 ## Deaths doubling times
  60 Based on a 7-day moving average
  61
  62 ![Deaths doubling times](covid_doubling_times_7.png)
  63
  64
  65 ## Cases per day and lockdown dates
  66 Based on a 7-day moving average
  67
  68 ![Cases per day](cases_per_day_with_lockdown.png)
  69
  70
  71 | Country ID | Country name | Most recent daily cases | Most recent daily deaths |
  72 |:-----------|:-------------|------------------------:|-------------------------:|
  73 | DE | Germany | 1199 | 5 |
  74 | ES | Spain | 5369 | 13 |
  75 | FR | France | 2442 | 14 |
  76 | IE | Ireland | 100 | 0 |
  77 | IT | Italy | 486 | 27 |
  78 | UK | United_Kingdom | 1071 | 10 |
  79
  80 (Figures are 7-day averages)
  81
  82 # Data sources
  83
  84 > Covid data from [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide)
  85
  86 > Population data from:
  87
  88 * [Office of National Statistics](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales) (Endland and Wales) Weeks start on a Saturday.
  89 * [Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency](https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths) (Northern Ireland). Weeks start on a Saturday. Note that the week numbers don't match the England and Wales data.
  90 * [National Records of Scotland](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/weekly-data-on-births-and-deaths) (Scotland). Note that Scotland uses ISO8601 week numbers, which start on a Monday.
  91
  92 > [Source code available](https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=tree)
  93