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+ <title>Covid death data summary</title>
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+<h1 class="title">Covid death data summary</h1>
+<p class="author">Neil Smith</p>
+<p class="date">Created on 2020-05-24</p>
+</header>
+<blockquote>
+<p>Last UK data from 2020-05-23</p>
+</blockquote>
+<h2 id="headlines">Headlines</h2>
+<table>
+<thead>
+<tr class="header">
+<th style="text-align: left;"><a href=""></a></th>
+<th style="text-align: right;"></th>
+</tr>
+</thead>
+<tbody>
+<tr class="odd">
+<td style="text-align: left;">Deaths reported so far</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">30615</td>
+</tr>
+<tr class="even">
+<td style="text-align: left;">Total Covid deaths to date</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">64827</td>
+</tr>
+<tr class="odd">
+<td style="text-align: left;">Projected total deaths up to 2020-06-09</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">71110</td>
+</tr>
+</tbody>
+</table>
+<h2 id="total-deaths">Total deaths</h2>
+<p>Time based on days since 10 deaths</p>
+<figure>
+<img src="covid_deaths_total_linear.png" alt="Total deaths" /><figcaption>Total deaths</figcaption>
+</figure>
+<table>
+<thead>
+<tr class="header">
+<th style="text-align: left;">Country ID</th>
+<th style="text-align: left;">Country name</th>
+<th style="text-align: right;">Total deaths</th>
+</tr>
+</thead>
+<tbody>
+<tr class="odd">
+<td style="text-align: left;">DE</td>
+<td style="text-align: left;">Germany</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">8216</td>
+</tr>
+<tr class="even">
+<td style="text-align: left;">ES</td>
+<td style="text-align: left;">Spain</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">28628</td>
+</tr>
+<tr class="odd">
+<td style="text-align: left;">FR</td>
+<td style="text-align: left;">France</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">28289</td>
+</tr>
+<tr class="even">
+<td style="text-align: left;">IE</td>
+<td style="text-align: left;">Ireland</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">1592</td>
+</tr>
+<tr class="odd">
+<td style="text-align: left;">IT</td>
+<td style="text-align: left;">Italy</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">32616</td>
+</tr>
+<tr class="even">
+<td style="text-align: left;">UK</td>
+<td style="text-align: left;">United_Kingdom</td>
+<td style="text-align: right;">36393</td>
+</tr>
+</tbody>
+</table>
+<h2 id="all-causes-deaths-uk">All-causes deaths, UK</h2>
+<figure>
+<img src="deaths-radar.png" alt="All-causes deaths" /><figcaption>All-causes deaths</figcaption>
+</figure>
+<h3 id="excess-deaths">Excess deaths</h3>
+<p>From week ending 20 March 2020, there have been approximately <strong>54535</strong> excess deaths, over the average for the previous five years.</p>
+<p>In that period, the UK reported 30615 Covid deaths. That means the actual number of Covid death is about 1.78 times higher than the reported figures.</p>
+<p>The UK has reported 36393 deaths so far. Using the scaling factor above, I infer that there have been <strong>64827</strong> total deaths so far.</p>
+<h2 id="deaths-per-day">Deaths per day</h2>
+<p>Based on a 7-day moving average</p>
+<figure>
+<img src="covid_deaths_per_day_7.png" alt="Deaths per day" /><figcaption>Deaths per day</figcaption>
+</figure>
+<h2 id="projected-deaths">Projected deaths</h2>
+<p>The UK’s daily deaths data is very similar to Italy’s. If I use the Italian data for the next 16 days, the UK will report 39920 deaths on day 87 of the epidemic.</p>
+<p>Using the excess deaths scaling from above, that will translate into <strong>71110</strong> Covid deaths total.</p>
+<h2 id="deaths-doubling-times">Deaths doubling times</h2>
+<p>Based on a 7-day moving average</p>
+<figure>
+<img src="covid_doubling_times_7.png" alt="Deaths doubling times" /><figcaption>Deaths doubling times</figcaption>
+</figure>
+<h1 id="data-sources">Data sources</h1>
+<blockquote>
+<p>Covid data from <a href="https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide">European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control</a></p>
+</blockquote>
+<blockquote>
+<p>Population data from:</p>
+</blockquote>
+<ul>
+<li><a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales">Office of National Statistics</a> (Endland and Wales) Weeks start on a Saturday.</li>
+<li><a href="https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths">Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency</a> (Northern Ireland). Weeks start on a Saturday. Note that the week numbers don’t match the England and Wales data.</li>
+<li><a href="https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/weekly-data-on-births-and-deaths">National Records of Scotland</a> (Scotland). Note that Scotland uses ISO8601 week numbers, which start on a Monday.</li>
+</ul>
+<blockquote>
+<p><a href="https://git.njae.me.uk/?p=covid19.git;a=tree">Souce code available</a></p>
+</blockquote>
+</body>
+</html>
projects / covid19.git / blobdiff